Signs Of E46 Bad Alternator

by journalists, Assangisten and anarchists


When I few years ago on the Bonn Christmas market shopping for the holidays wanted to do, two smartly dressed young men with fine manners were targeted to march on me. They introduced themselves as missionaries politely to one of the hard-working American sects in Utah, and asked the polite tone showing what religion I belong then. Well, you know this scene may itself would I now, very honest answer, "Roman Catholic", well, I could purchase the afternoon abschminken with discussions about God and the world and why I prefer not Mormon or that it should be something .

I could now also commit errors with the banal "I'm an atheist " answer to the two men as possible quickly get rid of. But then I could not just an afternoon, but abschminken like the whole rest of the week because the missionaries would be really under way, to the apparently occupied by the devil to bring man back to the path of the only true masters back. So I spontaneously remembered my affinity to Eastern religions, and answered a moment ': "I am Buddhist ".

The success was resounding as I had expected. The two friendly gentlemen looked at only briefly, and took their leave, with no further comments, and especially now, with known politeness. What was going to happen? Well, because two things were crucial. First, the most important, the missionaries recognized "is a believer, that is quite ok first and second," whose religion is something different from ours, because we ran not come to us babbles all afternoon with his philosophical fuss because we are wasting our valuable mission time. ". Ergo a typical win-win situation where both get halfway to what they wanted. Both had maintained their rough picture of the world, and both parties did not need to waste unnecessary time.

Well, in politics it is no different. No matter what party you, the main thing that you ever go to vote. No matter whether right, left or the popular center, where nobody knows exactly where is actually says that is already political Buddhism. Even as a communist or a fascist you go through some degree, although you certainly mission experiments are exposed, but woe, woe to make you say the banal error, please be Anarchist . As an atheist, you are then immediately the offspring of the devil, the representative of chaos, hedonism and licentiousness, the image of hell on earth.

is a case so naturally Julian Assange, colloquially new German "Internet-anarchist". As such, it is now, consequently, on the black list of most-wanted-persons of the U.S., but certainly not only , security authorities. Following the publication of thousands and thousands of secret documents of the U.S. military and U.S. diplomacy is likely to question the intelligence services, whom it because would prefer underground, Osama bin Laden or Julian Assange , be sure to answer the majority with second name. Because Osama is useful as a live enemy than a dead martyr, and actually more dangerous than the vast number of his followers, he is also not really dangerous for the power issue, however, is Assange and his (still) the organization Wikileaks .

His basic ideas summarizes Wikipedia: "Assange is close to ideas of the crypto-anarchism. On the basis of libertarian ideology is the crypto-anarchism laid an information asymmetry between government and citizens. While a State is able to control large parts of the communications of its citizens, while he tries to keep much information secret from them. The technical innovations of the Internet would offer the opportunity now to reverse the observed asymmetry. On the one hand, all private information is protected by cryptographic means. This would have a far-reaching restrictions on state influence and control options to follow. This stage could the other also be achieved by following the publication of rule knowledge. The publicizing of rule knowledge would lead authorities to reduce their communication flows, which would be a reduction of the function of the overall system mean state. This Assange: "Leaking is an inherently anti-authoritarian action. It is an anarchistic action. "

The essential idea behind Wikileaks is, therefore, the Spies flip easily between government and citizens. In fact, the Datensammelei of the state in the last two decades has increased concern. Varies by state, is the classic democratic phone and privacy of correspondence, the right to free speech, journalistic rights to report freely and the protection of whistleblowers, the right to personal data, etc. pp. been increasingly undermined. The public databases, especially the U.S. sources, almost across from seemingly harmless or useful information on allegedly dangerous citizens, but also politicians of all nations and their human and technical hazards, such as the recent controversial and Wikileaks made public, diplomat Peschen end.

The recently published diplomatic mails were not only the barrel Wikileaks finally overrun, they also showed the weaknesses of such Datensammelei only too clearly. So had about 2.5 million official persons in the United States free access to the research database. That one little "leak test" is of course difficult to avoid. The already responded is now exactly what was intended Assange: Access to this data was clearly limited. And with each release, the Datensammelei is limited in practice, because the only data available are not really are finally safe from theft. The medium-term consequence is then less data access, but particularly less data collection.

latter in particular is of course a supposedly important instrument of power that now threatens to become shaky. The U.S. Attorney General recently brought it to the point: leaks "U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has said that he has Authorised investigations into the Possibility of prosecuting those responsible for the Wikileaks Cable Gate. Speaking today (6 December), Holder said: "I personally authorized a number of things last week and that's an indication of the seriousness with Which We take this matter and the highest level of involvement at the Department of Justice."

Accordingly harsh (highest level of involvement) are now the response from the U.S., where all the levers be set in motion the Wikileaks spook to end as quickly as possible. Since one is when you look at the publicly available look into it, pronounced by a pitch and sulfur-smelling witch trial rape allegation from Sweden who wanted Flupp only after repeated exchange the competent public prosecutors really. Schaunmermal what it actually comes around. Clearly, however, of course, are the rows of influences on well-known companies like ebay, amazon, paypal, MasterCard, internet provider, avoid URL-address assignment, etc., etc. to Wikileaks financial and technical platform.

The other side, meanwhile, is sleeping well, however. On the one hand Wikileaks tried everything possible to its technical and financial to save basis. Thus, the necessary data transferred to other servers, creating new URLs, etc. This will certainly not rich, so now the counter-attack came to the company, giving in to pressure from above: with DoS attacks (denial of service: an Internet overload server with service requests) were already a few websites shut down. In particular, such as credit card companies is a serious danger, because if the server is not running this business quickly, then millions of customers can not use their cards at this time at the supermarket terminal. This is violently into the money and renown.

such Web attacks but only work when you bring together several thousand supporters for putting on a so-called "ion gun" download and operate. As an example of this was now the first gunners arrested in the Netherlands. That this is a minor as the one that is especially enthusiastic about the distribution policy suspended and frustrated young people in such projects, and on the other hand, the judicious choice of the Dutch authorities, with the arrest of only a 16-year-old adolescents maximum uncertainty in the supposed Teenager band "Anonymous" to stir.

The front of the young and educated people is also in the United States long ago put up. For example, the Columbia University ihre Studenten eindrücklich gewarnt : „We received a call today from a SIPA alumnus who is working at the State Department. He asked us to pass along the following information to anyone who will be applying for jobs in the federal government, since all would require a background investigation and in some instances a security clearance. The documents released during the past few months through Wikileaks are still considered classified documents. He recommends that you DO NOT post links to these documents nor make comments on social media sites such as Facebook or through Twitter. Engaging in these activities would call into question your ability to deal with confidential information, which is part of most positions with the federal government.” In plain words: Who is in Wikileaks and their data, the public gets no job. For many law students, of course, an absolute killer argument. Because it can prevent might see the career, if only its own IP address is displayed on the log of the Wikileaks providers and lurks in the future in one of the many databases of American security authorities for inclined use.

So much the current war coverage. The question is, how everything with the heart of the Democrats to assess. And, of course, suffers a corresponding blockage of the coronary vessels. The entire process Wikileaks reveal about Assange and another, more ominous, symptom of the global crisis of the capitalist democratic world. It's the same pattern as we know it from the destruction of so many world and empires. In ancient Rome it was just as well, just for example, in the French Revolution , which marked the beginning of modern modern times a little over 200 years.

First you ruined the finances, which is associated in particular with a total displacement of the right to GDP in the hands of the few privateers. It immediately follows the loss of equity and social cohesion, and thus the start of the anomie, the state of missing or weak social norms, rules and order. In particular, the actual looting of the middle class will eventually lead to internal disintegration, no later than the leads, financial need of the state not only to bullying taxes but also to the loss of supply and protection (internal security) of the state towards its citizens. Moreover, the ruined state finances one in every sense of the word, and externally devastating effect: The loss of external security and the enforcement of vital interests, as the financing of the instruments of power, including the military, is being undermined.

This is the situation in which we now find ourselves once again. to a real financial, asset and distribution reform, as it would be essential to the democratic state is obviously not able to. Not even to recognize the need for it at all in the necessary width. The question now is whether and how one can bring the Western democracies to the direction full speed ahead on the Iceberg, modify. What is even more legitimate, relevant and promising, which is however only destructive? The answer from history has been performing regularly, the last one: finanzkapitulierende system finally disintegrated socially and militarily to the final waste and subversion.

In this large context, we must now consider the role of Julian Assange. Is his approach in the broadest sense, nor a legitimate, appropriate and promising? Does it help us at last to save democracy from the feared destruction of the top down? Or it helps involuntarily unknown third parties who lie in wait for the establishment of a fresh dictatorship? Not an easy question with certainly no easy answers.

To come closer to an answer, one must also consider that Assange of his most important, its role as an investigative journalist . Because Wikileaks throws a sharp light on the particular role and the rights and obligations of journalism in a democracy. because a democracy without investigative journalism is as unthinkable as a dictatorship with free journalism. We (still) live in a democratic world, we see now, to put it rather cynical, above all, simple to one fact: Julian Assange still lives.

because that's even in some more or less well-functioning democracies, not far from the borders of the FRG, unfortunately not an absolute matter of course. About the democratic post-czarist Russia Assange would be quite likely to already be a dead journalist. Namely die there in a weekly rhythm journalists the machinations Fine circles get too close to a violent death. The same is true for Italy, where not only journalists but even judges and prosecutors , investigative and really well protected from falling profession because of the machinations of influential circles the victim or at least so pressured that they open their mouth rather not . And by real dictators and crooks States, we do prefer to say nothing diplomatically.

Investigative journalism is not for nothing called the "fourth" in the state. And like any violence in a social system it is by competing forces with suspicion and more or less fought. In particular, the now withdraw from Wikileaks exemplary approach to observing, that the financial basis, is considered an effective means of effective regulation. As it got to be quick at Wikileaks, this approach is hardly dressed in silk and velvet, but it is organized very direct and flat.

The democratic journalism on the whole was, is and has in part itself, but also removed. Anyone who browses through the dozens of daily online journals noticed very quickly how the same news everywhere. Even beyond the national borders and continents. It is because that can barely afford another expensive full-Gazette own editors, in the even full-time employees investigative reporter, and therefore expensive, journalism operate. In most cases, often verbatim, the available news from press agencies over using cut and paste, and best, some pimped.

Most journalists are not permanent employees more, but live in a precarious employment relationship as a freelancer. Who is there to places far from the window is replaced, may not result jobs longer, and since we like to remain prudent in the preserves. Especially since the writing so everyone else does, and it just can not be wrong. Add to this the fact that a magazine is typically 50% of advertising pages. For without advertising, with newspaper sales alone, not a leaf is to be funded permanently. The dependence on the good pleasure of the noble donors is so elementary, not less dependent than their respective political parties from lobbyists.

about this issue, quoting the Wikipedia communication and Medienwissenschaftler.Prof. Dr. Siegfried Weischenberg: to perceive "[...] the public function, the [journalism] for the highest law, [is] looking [to] become a magnifying glass. In the entire journalism critics increasingly role in non-activity. The crisis of journalism [...] is to rise above his critics function as a crisis, they is obsolete if the distance is lacking and the relevance anyway. This is traditionally the structurally corrupt motor and travel journalism and part of the business journalism. [...] Had paid journalists to keep their ever-tighter labor, because of the audience and the advertising function, as tends to be more oriented to the PR in the mainstream. Independent experts and citizen journalism is investigative. "

Assange, as an investigative journalist, is now exposed on one side violent criticism that accuses him quasi Fatherland betrayal and endangerment. And boisterous on the other subject hero worship. On the one hand it is clear that some of he published secret papers languished close to the edge of journalistic legality, another was long overdue and a failure or even failure of mainstream journalism. In the last such violent resentment causing diplomat end Peschen one must indeed ask whether it is really interesting whether U.S. diplomats allies like Putin , Berlusconi or Karzai under diplomatic stroke vain, corrupt or criminal Gockel Keep in pinstripes or not. For these "secrets" are all politically interested and informed citizens finally before long, and it just missed the U.S. diplomats should be would now surprise really.

But what was really on the table is actually incredible data collection of U.S. diplomacy, as the de facto In 's state security authorities used. Frightening is that, particularly the global spokesman for democracy, while collecting data about and with its citizens and allies in principle, hardly projecting itself better than we assume, of course dictatorships. The difference is less in quantity and type of data than is in the way they used. But also threatens the difference, see the above quote from the Columbia University, on to cover short or long.

traitor or a hero of democracy? The historiography will reserve a place for Assange sometime somewhere between these two extremes, depending on what with him and about him ever so happens otherwise. Certainly it is not relevant to the individual standings, a hero , and like every hero ambivalent and ambiguous. This applies to Assange of Arminius, and how will he have undoubtedly paid a high price for his heroics. People like Assange set but at least the standards for the many unsung heroes, such as in the editorial offices of the free press, or at the front in Afghanistan and Iraq, or dependency, in the back rooms of the established power, the future of their acts of destruction or survival of democracy.

Small heroes such as Horst Seehofer, the language regime in defiance of his own government, a smaller pension publicly called for what it is: A pension reduction. Even if he had to mooch into the back room of the power back, it was only out of his mouth is a very important word mark. Or Lance Corporal Bradley Manning, who copied a video that shows how the crew of a U.S. attack helicopter in Iraq in 2007 massacred eleven civilians. For democracy, I wish I very very much Seehofer or Manning, and, a few Assangisten. For all but the great heroes of the benchmarks set for orientation, but provide only the countless unsung heroes, the requirement for a necessary correction or permanent intolerable conditions.

Arnica Hair Oil Reviews

Times in History: The plutocratic Republic of Germany

Times in History who keeps herself busy with history, especially recent history, currently experiencing a real Deja Vu. Do you remember the BayernLB ? Since we needed a night of advice to the Institute initially 5, and finally to cobble € 15 billion from the tax coffers to. Not unlike the or WestLB, HSH Nordbank that Landesbank Baden-Württemberg , the scheme was in rows so on. Finally, the private banks, especially the HRE where fast times 102 billion has been made easy, and recently, quietly and almost unnoticed by the public, could reach 200 billion € junk bonds to the taxpayer on. Who believes that this fund actually returned to positive cash can be converted to the taxpayer, or that would ever have hereby reached the end of the story, who can also make an Easter bunny on the desk. Is just as credible.

Then the failures of the EU states Iceland, Greece and Ireland. All three broke, stone dead. The bailouts are huge, about 1,000 billion alone for our EU bankrupt, and for banks in Germany alone also been almost 1,000 billion of guarantees and support. Although the majority of these costs on the backs of small taxpayers in special funds, and not in the official budget, is already the national debt of Germany has increased rapidly. Especially funny this is also the fact that all these insane amounts raised by the loans for which you, dear reader, and taxpayers in the end are also still huge interest in exactly those of you just may pay involuntarily rescued banks.

And who thinks that they could save the towering mountains away billions, or even believe that we could pay back debt, which can also provide the same or a Santa Claus find his Easter bunny. There is no reason to believe just do not know it is simply impossible. The now the citizen, and therefore just the real economy, imposed austerity measures only serve to reduce the deficit, not to debt reduction, and they simply overwhelm the GDP. The effect of these measures is virtually zero, yet the debt to double every 10 years in the crisis countries. What a generation ago would have had sense is now that we are already strong in the exponential phase of the financial crisis, pointless and boosts the collapse will only continue.

The equally incredible speed with which these sums to support the assets, on behalf of sole practitioners have been approved in contrast, now very curious as to the increase in the Hartz IV sets. Since it has benefited after years of ideological tug of war, and half-hearted only after a supreme court ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court, and even cold-hearted, 5 € a month to increase the sentences. And they are now once again, especially because of the tax increases in energy prices, inflation disappeared in Nirvana. This "good deed" by the way is worth a whopping € 0.3 billion per year. Actually, although no amount is Klecker, it alone but far less than the annual interest that must be permanently applied only to the rescue of BayernLB, the rest of the huge bailout we would rather remain silent genteel.

astonished face of this immense political and social imbalance there is little that the unwilling savior now taxes, charges and fee increases, and public austerity, particularly at municipal level, compared to all corners of looks. While on the part of those rescued so far no trace of assets or transaction taxes, or even from the degradation of already existing tax breaks, is discussed. Of the more unilateral allocation plans, most recently the health insurance, the professionals alone, I will not comment further. Who will, may be happy to check with Minister Rösler .

dictatorships, but also revolutions have a tendency to develop very gradually and almost unnoticed. The fact that we are experiencing at present is precisely that it is the fiscal policy alone, which is decisive for democracy has become, and not the welfare of the citizens as a whole. Culminating in such ideas, as recently at Wolfgang Schäuble suggests that serious, that in addition to normal Income tax that the citizens still strapped municipalities to extort an additional income tax. If he had the heart of the Democrats, he probably would rather the restoration of the property taxes come to mind.

Apart from this incredible operation (oddly enough, the people here resigned and thinks not even a proper demonstration of the sovereign), the consequences could be truly fatal: there would be about the cities of Dusseldorf and Cologne each other's citizens to contest and the really strapped cities would, in effect, and finally clip again slums. But that makes our government, but also to journalists and citizens of the FRG, obviously less headaches than the idea with an effective taxation of the assets / liabilities of banks to create one (in fact slightly bearable) capital flight.

This strange democracy culminating in such statements as that of the rail bosses, but also other high-ranking politician who commented on the resistance to about 5 billion euro project Stuttgart 21 : "Only a man would in the opponents of "Stuttgart 21" are similarly unpopular, such as Baden-Württemberg Minister President Stefan Mappus -. the train chief Ruediger Grube in the Bild am Sonntag newspaper he called the protests against the controversial rail project "Stuttgart 21" now as not justified. "There is no right of resistance against the construction of the station is not," writes pit in a commentary. "We decide parliaments, no one else our freely elected representatives have done dozens of times. Waistband, in the country, city and region always by large majorities," said Grube. ".

Oops, with large majorities? This, of course on the fiction of parliamentary democracy . In Germany, we have that is not direct but a single through the ballot every few years, legitimate participation of the people. What hot, if you want the citizens now have what pötzlich against the billion-dollar project, but that he should soon write on his ballot, a right to revise the decisions made in back rooms, be it to current events (financial crisis), he did not have that right. The summit railway boss but it would be perfectly legitimate, and so does his political allies, if he would train as a chef, from whatever reason, get off now as one side of the business.


Although me personally, the Stuttgart train station is not really interested, whether for good overall but noted that it is far from the railway, which has to bear the brunt of the cost of the project. In fact, it is again the tax payer, the lion share of around 5 billion with. And, in the face of such generosity, slowly dwindling democratic sense. Construction industry, property owners, brokers, banks and politics, but ultimately the main financial profiteers of Stuttgart 21 And if you believe that you would find in the disclosure of all contracts and agreements not strange familiar and friendly relations with these gentlemen and ladies, set to equal another addition to the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus in Santa Claus.

it is said, is Wolfgang Schuster, Lord Mayor of Stuttgart, also chairman of the Stuttgart Trams Ltd and Chairman of the Board Transport association Stuttgart, to vice-chairman of the Airport Stuttgart AG and even the 'Meeting of Landesbank Baden-Württemberg and chairman of its credit committee. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg? Yep, just what we had today before, and who of course, see above, already sunk tens of billions of taxpayer.

Well long story short: The old capitalist, parliamentary democracy and social market economy has gradually approached a oligarchy and turns now increasingly by the fact of actual policy-making into a plutocracy . In partial characteristics maybe you can even speak of a kleptocracy , especially if one more European brothers as Berlusconi's Italy, and others with its sights. The step up to the dictatorship is not too far when citizens from the headless in the financial swamp sunken democracies do not expect help more.

Even without these harsh words can bring the problem to the next point: The policy is now determined only by the needs of the financial world, no matter whether in Berlin, Paris, Athens and Washington. The problems and needs of the common man or woman appear only as an annoying, but also increasing, marginal, with little understanding expect to have.

The reason for this is in addition to the completely overwhelmed Democrats, ultimately, a fundamental design flaw of our money that simply knows no expiration date, and we pay actually still a loan which, for example, 1960 was recorded by a home builder, for the third or fourth time again from. If you do not believe that, you are not alone there. Writes about the Wikipedia . "The money supply is reduced by lending or purchase of assets by banks increased, and by a loan agreement or sale of assets of banks These operations are called money creation and destruction of money .... "

What makes sense at first glance may sound, is unfortunately the prevailing basic misconception that politicians and citizens will be out is a scam. For for repayment, such as the above-mentioned homeowners credit, but the balance is in balance in the account of the counterparty bank / house builders, which arises, however, already a significant portion of new money means the interest payable. But (or passed out from the bank just keep) the money that the homeowners paid to the workers and contractors has is, of course, still, in full, here. It circulates only impose relatively short time and then land on derVolkswirtschaft many bank accounts as a contribution again. And then of course requires more interest and so on to generate new loans third. Nothing else is in fact the life purpose of the banking institutions. So comes the exponential spiral of wealth creation in motion, the regular after two generations beyond all imagination, and possible rescue.

One of the few ways out of these recurring Jahrhundertdilemmi is the so-called free money . It acts, in principle, the landmark voucher principle. We know of many businesses that issue vouchers for everything, but it always specify an expiration date on it. After that, the bill worthless. It would of course be the money because it is nothing but a coupon for goods and services in the GDP. THUS, then above craftsmen and builders for the money of the little house builder what to buy nice, but can not generate new loans in the same amount. And the need today for the purchase of our fathers and grandfathers to umpteenth time again pay off.


The other way is unparitätische inflation and currency reform. However, regularly accompanied by massive distribution wars. For we have neither a reward nor a health insurance nor a Pension problem. We have in fact merely a tremendous problem of distribution. This is easily seen, if you take a calculated entirely according to official figures, the assets and GDP per head (!) Of the population. Even adjusted for inflation, we produce more per capita real (!) Values than ever. Since it is a per-capita value, in fact, so be it baby or old man or an employee, there is actually not the slightest reason for any whom to cut wages or pension .

The problem is that is not directly the worsening of the population pyramid, but the fact that less and less finishing work required, and thus less and less wage and tax amounts to an ever larger expectant production generate. particular, the increased productivity, in addition to the huge capital surplus, carries the imbalance. If you can not quite imagine such, think just how it should be because if in future, with increasing technological development, the entire production of an industrialized country would only be achieved by self-reproducing robots. The wealth was immense, but for whom? For the few robots owner? Or should there be an allocation rule which takes into account all the people?

It is precisely this distribution wars raging not only nationally but also internationally, in particular, regularly Democracies and dictatorships in the world stood in wars can. That time, in a far more enlightened world, should succeed the first time this scenario to prevent and to free themselves from the self-defined loop, because I have personally witnessed the greatest doubts. The cautionary example of Adolf Hitler is indeed out sucks already possible, but it has the greatest relevance here. Such was the German was in 1930, a year after the plutocracy's young democracy was again in the grip, hardly a plausible, that would be only 15 years later, Germany is a desert of rubble and look as far as the eye.

The Deja Vu can be seen in the Wikipedia read well: "... The economic downturn, in the form of a sharp recession, made his spectacular exit in the stock market crash on Wall Street [1929] taken and rapidly spread globally midst of this precarious situation shook out a piece of bad news. Austria, the banking community in Europe. Creditanstalt, the largest bank in Austria and also a giant holding company with extensive share ownership was broke. Through direct and indirect interests had controlled 60 percent of Austrian industry.

The nerves of investors were bare, and not only in Austria. For the weaknesses of the banking system, become the undoing of the Creditanstalt had let themselves in other European countries, particularly Germany, will recognize only too easily. Final undoing was the German banking industry, but its dependence on foreign countries (especially the United States). There they had supplied the capital which they gave to commerce and industry. The liquidity of the German banks to go so to a considerable extent on the confidence of foreign countries that, while the emerging world economic crisis, as an increasingly fragile proved. In May 1931wurde rumored that Karstadt was in need of money, known as the North Star Insurance. The creditors asked now concerned How do the banks were still the Karstadt had borrowed money.

Political developments frightened donors further. A statement by Chancellor Bruning, who suggested the possibility of national bankruptcy of the empire, fueled in early June 1931, the dangerous capital outflow to foreign countries continues to increase. For the big crash just needed a reason. The Bremer gave a windy company called Northern wool - and its partner, the Darmstadt and National Bank. Both companies had speculated with questionable, high-risk investments. The Danatbank by the collapse of the northern wool hit hard. The public made rumors around, now that a German bank was in difficulties. When the name was the Danatbank, broke the rush of investors. Within days the Bank had to capitulate. On Monday, 13 July, remained closed its doors.

On the previous weekend hectic emergency talks between industry leaders and the national government a chaos among the banks had disclosed in the kingdom. Dresdner Bank, for instance, which was also heavily burdened with loans for the northern wool claimed on 11 July 1931 to not be in danger - three days later she was at the end. The national government now took the emergency brake. On Monday, the banks opened and were no longer only hours after the rush-Hispanic savers the government declared the following two days on bank holidays. Thereafter, withdrawals were initially approved only for urgent operations, such as the payment of salaries. The breathing space they used to supply the most vulnerable banks with money.

discounted the state, under the chaotic protests of the bankers, credit for the economy and reduced by decree the return of current bonds. It introduced stricter controls and a first bank supervision. The government succeeded with large-scale interventions - from the acquisition of large banks on restructuring to flanking regulatory measures - the collapse of the German to prevent the financial system. What they had gambled in the population, but their last loan. Trade unions and Communists railed against the socialization of losses. An anti-capitalist attitude of the population, even by the economic crisis to spread far, but since then the Cabinet apparently threw for especially big business and banks unpopular in the breach, this brought no sympathy - on the contrary. The banks also advanced, although the state intervention had finally saved from Chancellor Brüning. "

If something is reduced, the excellent article in the Wikipedia to the Weimar Republic. The Wikipedia pulls then as the Conclusion. "The thesis that the" Weimar "in the formula of a" democracy without democrats bring "is undoubtedly the simplistic escalation of a problem you meet, but definitely too many former leaders in government, business and administration, and also to Most of the parties and the electorate. Hitler was at one time Chancellor, when his party due to internal tensions after several failed attempts in a serious crisis. What the National Socialists' seizure of power "referred to that strength suggest is, rather by some as a transfer of power, as a surrender of the Republic of view. "

Among the senior economic reasons for the takeover of the Nazi party is one of the Wikipedia: "The consequences of inflation, global economic crisis, unemployment, overstretched social security, social decline in the middle class, and the desire of large business community after the destruction of the welfare state and labor movement."

How the same time yet. The claim that "the present day could be compared to the Weimar Republic did not yet" is so unrealistic, as the Bank stress test, the predicted 3.5 billion financial needs of European banks and a few weeks later 70 billion in Ireland sank to in the past Days culminated in the complete national bankruptcy and another three-digit billion syringes for Ireland. Since we must drape the Christ child, as well in addition to the three figures on the desk.

Fifteen years, 2025, it seems as distant as a thousand worlds. And yet so close.

Democrat one is not because there was so much calls. That was Eric Honeker namely, too. Democrat is one if and only if it is so. Who is always kowtowing to just up and down occurs, the definitely not. And as our dear elected officials to act since the outbreak of the Lehman crisis, at least, no better than Honni in the really existing, but extinct, DDR. Strange rarely flickers again on an upright heart Democrats.

So as Bavaria's Seehofer called the retirement age to 67 a covered pension reduction. About as much "policy failure" criticism rained from his own party to him in so much that he immediately qualified its statements and to the phony statistics on age work of Ursula von der Leyen took in. Only: Even if this stilted nonsense actually thinks and believes that the future will lick the industry for over 60 years of full-time employees only as the finger, it still remains a rent reduction! (The Easter Bunny to me at this point, unfortunately, gone out. Imagine, alternatively, request, a picture of Ursula.)

And not even a covert. For every banker and economist knows, the money today and I get the same money if I get it in two years, is definitely not the same. Because if I discounting the later money accordingly. And second, everyone knows actuary that the mortality rate increases at this age as the fourth power of age. That means in plain language, has two years later, a erklecklicher portion disposed above all the male population, already by biological solution. And the survivors I have two years of less retirement pay is that the average life expectancy for men (77 years: 77-65 = 12; 77-67 = 10, saving: 20%) and women (82 years: 82-65 = 17; 82 - 67 = 15, saving: 13%) also clearly evident as the third component. The fourth component, I might add the effect that two years longer work stress were also more likely to be felt in a declining life expectancy of them happy. So to sum up a really erkleckliche savings for the state, which gives him fresh air in order to save threatened assets. Who does not want to call all by name, is not only undemocratic, but that's perfidious unchristian.

requires to be in the present time Democrat, in fact, more than to destroy on nice celebrity parties with appetizers and I-am-very-important-helicopters to fly through the area to shine on meetings with lively talk. This easy times are over. Those who still want to call Democrat, without having to be embarrassed here, he must have not the heart Democrats in the pants, but the heart of the boxer in the chest. And to be any misunderstanding: A real boxer spanking is not the public but only real opponent.

An economy is like a tree, he the roots downward and the best fruit on top. At Revolution, War and terrorism is just the opposite, the roots are always on top, the less rich fruit at the bottom.

should be mindful of every one who lives in a glass palace, with taxes to which throws out there.

Why Does Urine White Particles

Tandemvipera Herbstbösachten 2010

"In its autumn report which it published today, expect an increase in the institutes of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent, was told the Handelsblatt in circles familiar with the data. 2011 economic performance is expected to grow by another two percent. This would at the end of next year reached again the pre-crisis levels. .... This makes Germany the superstar in Europe. Because the opinion is that the economy across the euro-zone down this year by 1.6 percent, coming in at 1.3 percent. ... " now writes the Handeslblatt . Concomitant over-proportional increase in the debt and asset plays no role in the analysis however, since it is identified as: "... wage increases and falling unemployment can aggregate wage bill rise sharply. It is considered a key factor for the development of public finances, largely because the tax and contribution income determined ...." . Sounds so casual, but is pure cynicism: Only pay the creators their own recovery by pumping, and then he has the associated support and Increasing the capacity of course, still Abstottern itself. Of fair property taxation, of course, no trace is to discover, let alone in the ever-same "economic orphans".

Now, the current upswing, or better, the recovery is not more than the usual cyclical fluctuations in economic at the long-term average. Of course the crazy generate billions of dollars on behalf of the little man for a temporary improvement, but these amounts have not disappeared but have become so only to assets in other hands. And now all take for granted the gift of money Interest on the demand and GDP consistently pump out. This leads to the well-observed setbacks, they have to follow every so borrowed boom.

Thus we read in the same Journal : "Conclusion: The additional debt, which made many countries to save their banks and stabilize the economy, have exacerbated existing problems in state finances. "The government debt ratio in 2010 in many cases as high as S & P would have expected around the year 2030," said Moritz Kraemer, director of sovereign ratings in Europe, Middle East and Africa .... Three years ago, S & P was still come to the comparatively undramatic conclusion the debt ratio - the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) - Germany will increase in 2050 to 99 percent. Today the agency is a shocking 400 percent of GDP. And in the other G7 countries, it usually does not better ..... Jagadeesh Gokhale, the economist calculated in this way in early 2009 that every EU country had an average unmet financial obligations of 434 percent of its annual economic output. These obligations allegedly resulted primarily from pledges of PAYG social security funds ....".

The debts are not predictable, it takes Mr. Rürup position. ".. the former head of the Advisory Council therefore sees such considerations critical. "Because of the qualitative differences not it is legitimate to aggregate explicit and implicit public debt to a size," he criticized. The crucial difference between explicit and implicit debt would be that explicit debt were represented and protected by private law, while implicit debt based on transfer requirements. And these claims, the state could withdraw at any time, unilaterally, such as the various pension reforms in Germany demonstrated. "It is easier to reduce the implicit debt," says Rürup ... "And above Hr. Kramer assists: "The sooner the politicians on the population specify that they do not keep their promise, the easier the adjustment process is "

In plain text. No one really thinks it to pay out for yourself, perhaps, their pensions and pension claims in the future, it happens to be fact. that the continuation of the current fiscal policy, or better, and more precisely.. distribution policy is totally illusory from the 2020s The same To say this before, it is sufficient to operate a simple calculator from completely

So, we can make fun of us on why. yes we love the carnival in the Rhineland so much "... nor size: eme et jot jejange .. how much are the lawyers, it dat but ejal ... but Drennan ene met up net su un vice a!. If you hear such a joke: So we had the last EU-bank stress testing. Results: The need for subsidies for European banks would be set at only 3.5 billion euros. Well, shortly after Ireland's government jumps at his local bank with € 70 billion, driving the federal deficit on the European record of around 32%. "Taera, Taera, Taera ... and ink." Well, where it is laughter, the joke about you not understand? Be not so humorless, who died laughing in the background at any rate half that no one noticed the gag really.

But that's us go from the gag would not: you know the "Greece will get its debt under control," a real hoot, I tell them. The goes so : "... Greece will pay back the billions in aid from European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might later than previously agreed. ... Meanwhile, Greece was able to place a new loan. The country gained on money market instruments with a maturity of 26 weeks 1.17 billion euros. The yield was lower at 4.54 percent as being situated in September, said the Greek Ministry of Finance. There was a further part of success on the long road to recovery of the Greek finance, banking experts judged in Athens. ... ". Which is good, right? Not understand? Well, I explained the joke: First the Greeks, of course, can not really pay. Well, we all know, but that's why the joke is so funny. So, push the agreed payment terms ever put off indefinitely, and only a few months after they had agreed to that. Man, this breaks my now ... and the diaphragm goes 's : "... The debt burden remains high, the economic output is falling, and protests of the population increase. But just in the past two weeks put a Greek papers impressive progress towards: the yields on ten-year rate fell by 1.5 percentage points. They fell from 10.42 percent on 24 September to 8.94 percent. ... ". Class was not, they know what mean "only" 8.94%? In ten years there are around € 330 billion instead of € 777 billion debt. This is a Schenkelklopfer, right, and again no one's noticed, just Suuuupeeeer!

And the HRE is always a good : "... first step towards returning to normality: the nationalized property bank Hypo Real Estate will back guarantees from the federal to the value of 23.5 billion euros. This would the guarantor vouch for only a hundred billion ...." . Only 100 billion, a blessing. But once you have the real joke is not really noticed, the "normality" is simply allowed to outsource the HRE recently around 200 billion into an equally state of BadBank Soffin. The stick you dear reader, now in a separate capacity and future tax burden of direct and definitive, in addition to the leg! And, and, yes, there are still much more gradually after these things ... until you eventually complete the malaise in the neck ... while the HRE Manager for The summit "normality" and then in 2011 officially and unabashedly thick may reap bonuses Manoman .... is the good.

a joke And the neighbor, still chasing One of the good : an "... The U.S. Federal Reserve announces new cash infusions, the Dax and promptly shot up to its highest level since September 2008 ...." It fits At the moment it all, "said one trader in Frankfurt, the mood among the investors on Tuesday night .... After the released minutes of the September meeting, the Fed is ready to pump possibly after the next rate-setting meeting in November, cheap money into the economy . The U.S. central bankers have the impression that soon again further stimulus measures were appropriate, went from the transcript The meeting produced ...." .

Yes at the "really fits all," We print hard-working, money, allowing you to remove make not only their legal retirement can, but also your small fortune. But do not worry, from 300 million you are still on the safe side . And the goal is so predictable, even if you get it for only a bag of bread rolls. Until then, you can however drive with some trade time: "It's the old story: the talk about a package to stimulate the U.S. economy and too much liquidity," said commodities trader Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "There is virtually no interest, so each run in commodities and in the stock market." In his estimation, the mark could [for gold] from $ 1,400 to be reached soon .... The euro rose on Thursday morning to $ 1.4094 and was as expensive as last end of January .... Investors are speculating that the dollar any further cash infusions, the Fed even more the case, said a dealer. According to the minutes released on Tuesday the recent central bank meeting last solidified the willingness of bankers to take the dollar printing presses again ...."

Sun jokes Financial Times Germany further: "... The Americans forced the world to inflation - which now must consider how they responded to ..... An important role in both processes, an aggressive monetary policy of industrialized nations, especially the United States. Roughly speaking, the Americans want to miss the rest of the world inflation, while the world wants to impose on Americans a deflation. The U.S. is here already as the winner, as their ammunition supply is unlimited: the Fed can therefore print many dollars as it wishes. be negotiated only the terms on which surrendered the rest of the world must, therefore, the necessary changes in nominal exchange rates and the domestic reforms that are taking place worldwide must .... China will [however] the United States impose a deflationary acting savings, such as Germany does with Greece. But this will not happen and would not be in the interest of China. As a creditor, it would indeed benefit from a real growth in value of claims against the United States. A local deflation could lead to a global economic crisis .... Instead of looking at the adjustment of exchange rates and balance of foreign trade cooperation with the other to force their will by the U.S. presses on. The Americans will win this war. Unfortunately, this creates a hopeless mess currency .... It would be for all concerned better to find a cooperative solution. ... Your meeting in Seoul in November for the next opportunity. The need exists, but whether the will is there, may be doubted. "

But the subtle humor of the Chinese people goes deeper. Although you could now sell their 2.65 trillion (2.650.000.000.000) Doll hierarchs simply the long-nosed overseas to its knees. But it goes much better so long, the Greens still have a value: "... Beijing controlling "the world's increasing access to strategic natural resources, what long-term supply disruptions in particular for rare metals" fear in Europe let .... In Central Asia, Beijing with "aggressive financing practices' own supply. Apart from the dispute over monetary policy threatens another violent conflict between economic China and the West. "They have used our temporary soft patch and secured with a subsidized financing market share," said outgoing Eastern Committee Chairman Klaus Mangold, "Have you noticed

's". ... Our temporary weakness ...", not saugut right? And there is one set on it: "... Brüderle (FDP), the exports of the Chinese referred to so-called rare earths on Wednesday in Shanghai as an "unfriendly act". China controls more than 90 percent of some rare metals, and had reduced the export quotas last. ... Particularly in Central Asia bring China raw materials offensive under his control, complains the Eastern Committee. Beijing use the advantages of a centralized economy, Mangold said: "The Chinese show that they can act counter-cyclically as State-controlled system in crisis." In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to China, a ceiling with strategically important raw materials and sell credits for "quasi for free "...." . This is now of course the irony of history "... The Chinese show that they can act counter-cyclically as State-controlled system in crisis." while for our capitalist coalition holds: "... The Chancellor's Office on Wednesday dampened hopes for a tougher line against China. "The buying of raw materials in Germany is not a state matter but a matter for the company," it said ...." .

He is so good that I am literally shaking and tears: the victory of communism over capitalism ... yeah, right, China is still a communist country ... Marx and Mao balls now in coffin!

are now but please not the same as xenophobic, and join as one of the many new carnival clubs to: "... According to a new study by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has increased during the economic crisis xenophobic attitudes significantly. Thus each believes about a third, migrants came alone to Germany to take advantage of the welfare state and should be in times of scarce jobs back to their home countries do not show ..... Many settings measured here simply a dissatisfaction with economic conditions - but values that are incompatible with liberal democracy. This is about the desire for a "leader with a firm hand" (13 percent approval) or a single "strong party" for the "national community as a whole" (just under 24 percent). And these include the desire to significantly restrict Muslims in the exercise of their religion (58 percent )..... In West Germany, the middle class in some right-wing than the bottom layer. That the center of society shifts to the right, the authors explained by the fear of losing in difficult economic times. ... Thirteen percent of respondents, the study of the opinion that the Germans were "inherently superior" to other peoples. Fifteen percent believe the Jews as "peculiar to themselves and do not really fit us." And more than a third found that Germany was "überfremdet in dangerous measure". "

The later it gets, the worse the jokes ... our strong leader, medicinal cooking or whoever it may, the returns still alive, fresh from the grave .... the shit, uh, shoot. So we first make it a day, a few of the really good saving I still on for the next session.

One thing I can promise you, this session was good, but the next one in 2011 that is still viiieeel Better!

Buttons In Madison Wi

Dead Man Walking V: For the mathematical rigor of DMWM

Not all science is so familiar with the method of mathematical modeling as theoretical physics. For many readers of this blog, especially among classical economists, there are therefore some basic Questions about DMWM presented here.

These are:

Why is it at all a mathematical modeling, which has the fundamental advantage over qualitative and empirical (statistical) considerations?

How to do such a thing as a meaningful way?

Why can because then any model A, a complaint against another model B, a greater claim to accuracy for themselves? Why are good especially the 2005 model IMF or the Harrod-Domar model so little?


Well, why do you do mathematical modeling? It's like that in any modern Science experiment and theory can complement each other and need. This interaction process works by empirical observations that can be targeted experiments, or just statistics (such as the Federal Statistical Office and the Bundesbank), or just polls. The success of such experiments is a knowledge of the effects, yielding a given system. So in our case about the statistically proven fact that the capital stock more generally is growing exponentially, and by far as the underlying GDP, which in contrast leads to a finite period of stagnation. Or with the growth of the capital stock on the one hand, of course, increases the (nominal) wealth, but also in practical lockstep poverty. Coincidence or rule?

is at this point is a theory. Because if you get based on the data to an idea about the underlying causes, can be something relatively easy to formulate a differential equation that must be integrated only. Ideally, the successful and analytically, in very many cases, but numerically we integrate what is practically forever. Except for such complex models, such as climate models that still the computing power of even the most advanced computer on demand.

The advantage of the theory is this return of a system to its basic causes. For only if the sufficient understood, one can begin effective action on the roots of the problem, instead of doctoring are only the symptoms have around. Add to that the experience comes from many scientific problems that extremely complex systems usually follow from the combination of a very few and most simple causes (so-called emergence). This is the theory makes it so much. In particular, develop from the then mathematically rigorous analytical approach possible new relationships, which in turn can be verified by experiments, or falsified, and must. And then the carousel starts again, until, as everything is consistent.

Now, how it's done in strict Way? Unfortunately, this is at the universities, so my experience is not as consistent theme. Also just for theoretical physicists, more than any other natural scientists are thoroughly trimmed to mathematical modeling, which is chewed through in every variation, but ultimately left to the common intuition that practice and practical experience. This is what one models quickly "from the gut" on, as you just in urine, as it works best. So I did it when DMWModell also made first.

to lower grounds of the DMWM, and in particular also as an idea quarry for young economists, I write this contribution to the understanding of the methodology and as Call for development by interested economists. For there is, as we shall see, after much air above it. The following makes but well ahead of mathematical understanding: Who will be a natural scientist or engineer with such a modeling deal regularly knows this. Economics is in principle in fact, also an engineering science, it is however often located more in the philosophical corner and it makes even a distinctive cross-faculty ( WiSo Faculty ) what the matter is, however, are less well served, and many currently evident become defects explained.

Well, what fundamental rights agency I, a mathematical model (theory)?

First course, it is in the experiment (Statistics) to reflect actual observed behavior with sufficient accuracy. Globally and, when possible, that is, over the entire course of the system, not only locally (ie only for a smaller area).

Second It must keep consistency considerations stood. For example, should be preserved and conserved quantities. The express themselves in so-called continuity equations.

Third In the first approach, we are of course with only a global agreement between theory and experiment been satisfied, without having to explain every detail do the same (scientific economic action: first the coarse, the fine-tuning will come later). Ideally, a Kascade the mutual influence between theory and experiment, but vote at the end of the theoretical and measured values match practice, because every good model can be explained by other factors (causes) and adjustments to improve add (impact statement). So for the beginning is always as simple as possible. But not simpler! (For the latter leads directly to singular and meaningless equations ).

Fourth not mathematically principally important that the alleged causes should be justifiable and comprehensible ("common sense"). And of course it mathematically (physically) be clean, but that is actually nothing more than a matter of course (a necessary but not sufficient condition).

So let us to our specific problem: Find a solution to the relationship between capital stock is (assets and liabilities, K (t)) and the gross domestic product (GDP, Y (t)) over time an economy.

That is a relationship between capital stock and GDP is quite obvious and is generally accepted. But how does he look like?

The "gut feeling" modeling is this: I have a reasonable idea about the causes (rates of change df / dt), and then I write just as a differential equation (ODE), and since we use the dependence of two sizes seeking as a differential equation system (DGLS) out. I also try first a linear approach because of the experience, is easier and often brings the solution. Then I test the solution for consistency, if it worked, it is ok, if not, what do I need to stop at my approach, in which I make about me again thinking about the deeper causes.

But you can formulate a mathematically rigorous: First, we have two functions that are being sought. The rates of change d / dt of the functions of the left side are the effects of the functions on the right sides of this (allegedly) responsible causes.

dY / dt = F (t, Y (t), K (t), pi (t )...) and dp / dt = G (t, Y (t), K (t), qi (t )...)

The functions F and G are, if you have no great idea, of course, be completely unknown. The only certainty is that by the time t, and each of the other influencing factor Y (t) and / or K (t) must be dependent. In addition there are other parameters, namely the, possibly time-dependent functions pijkl (t) and qijkl (t), the percentages or what can also be accessible for parameters. Aijkl and Bijkl are simple constants.

Now you can make a mathematical trick that every proper analytic function fluppt well: namely, a representation as Taylor series :

dY / dt = Sum (Aijkl pijkl (t) Y ^ (i) j K ^ ( k) l, ...)
dK / dt = Sum (Bijkl qijkl (t) Y ^ (i) j K ^ (k) l, ...)

The genius of the Taylor development is that through each infinitely differentiable function a replace series of converging approximations can. So far so good, but Now you can first use the leading linear terms. The more severe terms of the order of play at the point of development is little or no role (or Aijkl Bijkl = 0). Out of this well-established fact, I may actually try first a simple linear approach. The fact is at least locally, and if I'm lucky, also even globally valid. So now only the leading terms of Taylor expansion:

dY / dt = A000 * P0000 * P0100 + A0100 + A0001 * Y * P0001 * K + ... ..
dK / dt = B000 + B0100 * * q0000 q0100 q0001 * B0001 * Y + * K + ... ..

So this is the first stage of simplification, because terms such as P0101 * Y * K or p0204Y ^ 2 * K ^ 4 or p2201 d2Y/dt2 * * K etc. pp. falling away first, because they at least locally, at least on a very narrow range delta-t, play no role.

The next step useful simplification, we drop the Aijkl and Bijkl just in the parameter functions pijkl and qijkl pure, or write:

dY / dt = y0 + p1 * y + p2 * K
dK / dt = k 0 + p3 * Y * K + p4


This is now the general linear model (*). here must now, economically justified, use discussion about the meaning and form of the parameter functions y0, k0, p1, p2, p3, p4 (t). These functions are generally functions the time, but if there are pseudo-constants (almost constant), or even constants, in particular, they can also be identically zero.

flow into the next considerations now an economic and mathematical consistency considerations. So let us consider what the parameters are y0, k0, p1, p2, p3, p4 for a meaning. The parameters y0 k0 and make no great sense, as their importance would be both of Y and K of totally independent growth. Here one could possibly but with the effect of shadow economies, as defined barter or counterfeit currency printing sense into it. In a somewhat righteous society we can rightly set to zero because they are thought to play only a minor role:

dY / dt = p1 * y + p2 * K
dK / dt = p3 * Y + p4 * K

There remain the parameter functions p1 to p4 . Let's start with the first equation. When the economy grows, without capital, from itself? Well, if you love each other quite has. Namely, through population growth. At least for the FRG can not neglect against the GDP growth through capital investment, as the population has been in the post-war years until today amazingly stable. Unlike in traditional immigration countries like the U.S., where immigration outweigh the natural growth. We can therefore p1 = 0. Should we not, one can use an appropriate formulation of p1 (t) is also to study the effect of population growth of the working population on GDP. But here now:

dY / dt = p2 * K
dK / dt = p3 + p4 * Y * K

For consistency, should now be p2 =- p4, as capital grows through interest rate of the GDP. Besides the interest from investments, it grows naturally or by the savings from the income of the GDP, ergo is p3 = ps, the savings rate in the economy, often with S (= ps * y). The savings rate is again a pseudo-constant, because the German savings ratio is hardly different from many years of around 10%, thus ps (t) = ps = const. This one is almost finished:

dY / dt =-pn (t) * K
dK / dt = ps * Y + pn (t) * K

In the specific formulation of pn (t) (in the IMF model letter g) in turn requires an assumption about the relationship between investment in the real economy to the 'transactions of the financial system. With

pn (t) = pv - pr (t): = pv - pv * a * exp (- (tT) / T) / e

I now have just used a simple form, which by the empirically proven statement premise that has exponentially increased with time and capital stocks, GDP does not have enough profitable sources of return, so that the proprietary trading, ie, the investment banking continues to rise. Instead, one can of course also tickle from statistical data, the actual distribution between real economic and investment units out and invest in the model instead of the above formula.

At this point it must be admitted, however, that there are definitely ways to make the functions of p2 to p4. want as classical economists do not like to see the equality of p2 =- p4. For the classic view is that in p2 only the amount of directly invested in the real economy, capital flows, the business of the inter-bank trading in derivatives bets and etc. pp. are not. Ergo, should the amount of be significantly larger than that of p2 can, which would significantly mitigate the negative effect of too much capital. However, contrary to the holding, which is also the bank proprietary trading profit always has to come from the GDP. Because someone has to pay at the end of the chain of sellers and buyers the papers. And the last cut in the chain while the GDP of capital, at least by the amount he has to the person place on it, which he sold the securities at a profit. The interest also. And the money he is then no longer sufficient for a new car, but the Lehman certificates placed in the vault. Or a company that invests its profits in those papers, instead of buying new machines or people stop because they higher profits with amino debt promise.

other hand, Try out and put other's functions. But such models are indeed right there. And then see if the real development of the system is approximated better or worse.



And see if the system is then still consistent! For just a continuity equation, the so-called quantity theory of economics M * v = x * P dar.
And that is the Dead meets Man Walking model in fact, the ratio Mv / xP = 1, namely conservation of economy and is actually all the time constant (blue curve) and runs only out of control when the system finally collapses. The very slight differences result from the fact that the DMWM was integrated numerically with a Excelltabelle, which always leads to slight rounding errors.

Compare this information and the resulting from the DMWM course of the orbital velocity (yellow line) with the statements of Wikipedia to the empirical money in circulation : "... So that an economy is functioning normally, the velocity of money are constant. In fact, the velocity of circulation in Germany decreased steadily since 1981 ... ", also in DMWM is the velocity of circulation since the 1980s. And again, "... For V2 has been demonstrated for a number of OECD countries, a long U-shaped course ..." . Well, that's exactly the qualitative course as in DMWM.


A deeper reason is replaced by the old economic wisdom Mv / xP = 1 by a comparison with physical problems. For, let us see again:

dr / dt + div j = 0

This is a normal equation of continuity, we know from physics. That is, in this case that the source for a current j r are the charges. And, it means that the charge is conserved. This is true in all systems with conserved quantities. One can write the equation as a four-vector:

Div (j, r) = 0

The four-divergence Div (j, r): = (d / dx, d / dy, d / dz, d / dt) * (jx, jy, jz, r) = (ve * j + dr / dt) = 0, ve: = unit rate.

applies in economics now

vM-xP = 0

The units for M and P are respectively € for v and p are there events 1/year. Rewritten in as a four-vector stands now:

Div (M-P) = 0

It is therefore in the quantity theory well the continuity equation, as we know from physics to electrical currents Div (j, r) = 0, where it is here, but money flows. With prices to the function of a (source of charge) have. In other words, the prices (of consumption) the source of financial flows (assets) are. Who would have guessed it ... more precisely: It says minus P, where P is the price level. Ergo increases the price level (inflation) so that damages the property, it goes down (deflation) it strengthens the power and damage of course the GDP.

( supplement 05:10. As you can see from the above plot (blue curve), lost the source of freedom of the system is finite in the crisis phase of this content. of course, because at the end of the system very much capital is fed into the system. To print this by now all Western central banks pour money. This is really interesting but now: The loss of the source freedom is inherent in the system. you go in the end lost because of the exponential compounding effect in any case. Either more people buy more wobbly papers, and if it do not, then the state must take this stuff so that the system does not collapse. And again, you can see: Due Div (M-P) = 0 you get the system only re-source-free if the price level P is increased, it is strong, that is inflated. What policy and finance to take time, therefore, is only the inevitability of the system due. Where they hope to escape the ultimate consequences of inflation and hyperinflation. Only that one can hope abschminken to eventually turns the system back swelling free. What formulas are unfortunately unable to say whether this is fairly painless border or in the chaos.)
come
course, such analogies between physics and economics is not reason, since the mathematics and theoretical physics is concerned with structures. Whether charge or money flows, it makes no difference to be smoke and mirrors. The structures are crucial. And the macro economy is a typical mechanical structure of streams and springs.

is to be noted here that the methodology described here and the DMWM of course be expanded by the addition of other factors, especially foreign trade imbalances. This is quite simply another coupling parameter to the neighboring economy. Other variants include the testing of economies that fail to investment banking or other financial systems have, etc. pp. Of course this will be more complex and is killed only with a lot of numerical analysis.

Thus we come to the final question of why a model A is better or worse than model B? The answer arises from mentioned above. The acid test is always the question of that is the test of whether the reality will be given globally and with reasonable accuracy once again, and whether the system as a whole, both mathematically as arguments regarding the causes, consistent.

The IMF model we had already in focus, it is simply unique and meaningful free. A comparison with the most general linear model (*) shows the abstrusity clear: First mentioned equations (1 ') dY / dt = g * Y (2') dI / dt = g * I (3 ') dK / dt = g * K no mutual dependencies, which already is an exclusion criterion, and secondly it is in fact the rate of the working population equal to the rate of exponential growth g of the capital stock. In other words, ensure that the conclusions of the IMF's rise approximately, we would have today a factor of 3,25 / 0,4 * Population 1950 population, or about 560 million, instead of 81st And that would also have an employment rate as in the economic boom times.

Let's come to the Harrod-Domar model. Well, the model to bring conflicting results that it has found no major legal recognition. Ditto a number of similar systems. In terms of our general scheme one can see the error again with the basic equations: Thus, the derivation begins with dY / dt = 1 / v * dp / dt. Mathematically, he has thus first set all linear terms to zero. 1 / v is a constant, corresponding to p0011. So what could we do if they had previously discussed the leading terms actually fit away. Did he not, but made only a vague and ignores the presumption is not empirically verifiable effects. Although it is Y = Y (K) depends ever formulated, ok, but what is it for: GDP grows uniformly with the capital stock. In short: Here, the requirement of the claim is made then the following derivations.

Well, as Einstein said Master olden times: the core of the scientist is that he can still be surprised.

Outside Temperatur Sensormondeo Mk3

BRD goes GDR undermined drop Constant brain

politicians and stockbrokers care to think in short time periods. The former the rhythm of the monthly surveys of voters, the latter in the rhythm of the short-term statistical fluctuations in the prices that it applies to rapid capital movements to transform into profits. No matter whether the real economy goes straight up or down.

(Image: Wikipedia ) It obscures the second quarter took place mini boom in annualized 9.1% in the exporting nation, Germany, the gray cells of all relevant groups. However, the longer-term trend has of course nothing changed. The problem lies where it believes it can absorb massive support to the veer more and more thinkers.

writes the Finanzial Times Germany under the title "Worse than before the crisis" over the current situation of not-super power USA: "The Flow of Funds of the Fed for the second quarter, as it would show that the financial devastation of decades, of course, not quarters. can be forgotten. And they cast doubt on the hypothesis of a slow recovery. "

And on to the official figures: "According to the latest Financial accounts of the Fed, the debt of the private U.S. households in the second quarter of 2010 with 13 450 billion dollars have been higher than in mid 2007, when the financial crisis in consumer debt of 13 403 billion . dollar was broken open. The same applies to non-financial companies in America, which now have loans of 10 909 billion dollars, compared to 9949 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2007

you wonder more about it funny on the other side of the counter looks like. "Only the U.S. financial sector has its debts reduced during this period on balance - from 15 173 to 14 744 billion dollars." Oh wonder who would have thought, and what remains of the average citizens and taxpayers: "In contrast, the tradable debt. the state of course explodes - to 3988 to 11 094 billion dollars. And since the nominal GDP since mid-2007 just increased by four percent, the debt of all nonfinancial . Sectors in relation to economic output of 217 increased to 243 percent ".. Oops

The consumer is of course for all straight: " It is particularly because of stock market losses, the net assets of U.S. consumers in the second quarter, meanwhile, fell significantly . The equity markets have recovered since the end of the second quarter, slightly, but that's small consolation when you consider that has shrunk the net assets of the consumer versus the second quarter of 2007 to one fifth or 12 253 billion dollars. The fact that consumer confidence will not improve partout (rather the contrary), in addition to unemployment should also be due to that fact. "

same applies to the non-financial corporations, which then are the companies of the real economy, companies outside the banking sector. "added Meanwhile, the net assets of non-financial corporations has stabilized, similarly as before that of the consumer but is also in this sector the net assets by 21 percent, or 3308 billion dollars under the old peak. This is a factor that is rarely considered, depending when it comes to the lack of investment in U.S. companies. "

The conclusion of FTD. "All this should help the fact that many economists of a (too?) Go slow recovery - Where they exclude a relapse into recession, however, if only because the investment and the "I-grudge-me-what-spending consumers are already so low that they hardly could still fall. What not to say the economists, however, is that a (too) slow recovery is not a stable equilibrium, especially not at a lower employment of 17 percent, because a further rise in unemployment threatens. This, however, could trigger new turmoil in the markets. This, in turn, the budgets of consumers, firms and financial sector would deteriorate. And whoosh, we have the next recession. "

How true, how true. For all the accuracy FTD-analysis, the cause is still too little understood. is of course the fundamental reason for this erroneous growth model of the IMF . Under that would need to artificially inflate the financial sector directly lead to a recovery. Which of course does not work, because all the artificially created money cries out for additional returns that ultimately lift the GDP must always. And for the politicians to open ears dummgeschwätzten meets with the honor that gift with other nags and thus exacerbate the problem. The latest million bonuses bankrupt bank HRE , of course, financed from taxpayers' hard-earned GDP just the exact insured that the men work with hundreds of billions guarantees throw, as a prominent spotlight.

That there was vote can not fell , already the FTD on "How far the banking world only concerned with themselves and lost contact with the ground has shown, including their salary to justify the high wages are compensation for. the increased job insecurity in the oh-so-hard Investment Banking. But, but, believe in the cash really. On average level of decision making on average around 200,000 €, because it must be taken so constantly with job loss. by the way, if it occurs, with one to two months' salary compensation per year Seniority is sweetened. But of this apart: How many bankers are unemployed today, shortly after the largest financial crisis of recent decades, actually? Few, very few. The labor markets in New York, London and Frankfurt are almost deserted, the hard salary increase because of labor shortages, and Germany built many investment banks and brokers from the second series of their teams even. "


It must be the only even imagine what it would be normal in the world of work. Here come the juicy bonuses for employees and require them to do only the work for which you have been hired and already be paid for strong, successful or not. Imagine such a constructive refusal to work in connection with extortion for steel workers before what would be the social reaction? You may now like to once imagined. Not so with the support of the pinstripe money elite, who can be described without much doubt, as a state within a state. Click to find such impulses open hearing, the money will quickly loose made and the protest of the decent is hardly worth more than a marginal note in the local section of the press.

Sun says the FTD: "This much has gone out of balance in all other respects, the financial institutions happy with their capital ratios. Warehouse as they want. Since late 1998, the total of the banks in the euro area to 17 895 to 32 075 billion euro has risen, while nominal GDP increased only at an annualized rate in 2895 to € 9157 billion. But the loans to the states and the private sector in the euro area have exploded around 8628 to 16 329 billion euros. .. Cheerfully Banks are the denominator for the calculation of capital ratios, risk weighted assets, together clip so well. A considerable portion of their assets they wanted to not even have given "

The only problem is that you get the assets in any given case, but in vain. For interest and compound interest and all assets, and no matter how meaningless and absurd as in the derivatives business by the GDP Finanzpushing be called rigorous. And when things still not working, then the tax-payers for the "losses" into the breach. For what exceeds major international banks to move assets to GDP's of small countries far and even with (still) strong states, like Germany, they already exceed every possible policy space.

What is in the FTD in particular, and in politics and economics in general, has still not understood, is the simple fact that economic liabilities, in connection with untotbaren-interest capital, non-degradable matter of principle. They can only be larger, not less. This one does not understand is all the more surprising as it stands not only been writing on every dollar bill explicitis explicitly on it, but to each host have money without complex mathematics should be familiar. Our money is only covered debt, between assets and liabilities is complete (!) Identity.


Economic debt reduction is possible only by relative or absolute wealth destruction!

As simple as this relationship is in fact, he is still far from the general perception. The article says the focus is highly revealing that deals with the book of the Ex-Finance Minister Steinbrück : "parallel societies exist not only at the lower end but also at the top of the income to live there ... those who say: We do not need the state, each € tax payment is too much. Public services, we need not, we can buy them privately. "The company is not threatened by right-or left arm, but by the protagonists of the system itself" It is the privileged, through excess, the lack of sense of balance and proportion, by an enrichment mentality saw off the branch on which they sit. Them a sense of social alliances missing down to integrate losers, "said Steinbrück."

could "People realize more strictly in the upper class," that conduct their excessive profit expectations for the destruction of the market economy and that their personal income trends continue not so "common good: Of course the man is absolutely right, and he speaks from experience when he says.. be prescribed but not by laws. "This is only a broad debate".

That this debate at present still impossible is was safely back on lobbying, advertising and public relations of the financial industry goes to show, above all, but the reader reactions to this article, in the the people's voice articulated. The study should any one time. Because they show the shocking extent of economic ignorance, and the amazing fact that the readership is protective and gnashing their teeth presents the love rich. Constant dripping wears not only the stone but also the brain. With the notion of "rich" completely watered down and appear unreasonable. Since all the pros and misjudgments of the last century trying to assign only even the specter of a monetary and financial reform on its own. Which comes sooner or later either way, you hesitate, it can only out. Where is it only prolonged the misery and worse.

You should first deal with the concept of "rich" and an appropriate definition. One must distinguish first between relative and absolute wealth. Relatively rich, especially when one looks out sometimes beyond the borders of Germany, of course, anyone who can eat with his wages and his loved ones at the end of the month still has a small surplus, which he can possibly create in his bank account. Are relatively rich in any case people like Steinbrück or Sarrazin, who have as a (former) top officials of a safe and erkleckliches salary or pensions .

But you are not representing the "rich" at issue in the discussion going or should go. Without their VIP status would such people with the really rich, at best, transmitted through the service entrance to the house. That misunderstanding is often discussed on the so-called "wealth tax" , the underlying definition is actually quite irrelevant. If such statements fall as "The chairman of the CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Peter Ramsauer, called the" wealth tax "as" economically senseless envy tax "." , so it's not wrong. Because a wealth tax, which begins in revenue from missed work, economically its goal completely.

course you can abknappsen tax at the high income or something, because this relative to middle-income de facto favored set ceiling for social security contributions, but these are economic Peanuts. They are namely, benefits or even here, only part of the GDP's, you must protect from the harmful effects overflowing capital pressure. Really, really rich are people who you relate well above-average income predominantly totally unemployed, namely the returns on investments.

The tax is in fact only really an injustice in the inequality of employment and capital income. makes it the worst of it well-earning middle class close to the ceiling of social security. For pay, the employer gross (non-employee gross) expected, already around 60% taxes in general funds. These are but the excise tax, because in contrast to rich people to use up your money until the end of the month almost completely. The tax burden is thus around 70%. From the absolute bottom of the lion's share of the government's share of social contributions, income tax and VAT will be drawn.

The capital is, however, gone fine. First of all, at least the interest earned should be expressed in income tax, to the peak at 45% are subject to. Actually need only 25% paid. Completely legal, and social security contributions to mention. But that's not the lower end of the story. Even the 25% fall in fact not, as many financial products are, if they last longer than a year, even tax-free. Sun posts a year (depending on the year fluctuating) over 500 billion € 15 billion, only interest income tax receipts over. And I have the inheritance tax, which strictly speaking does not belong to already be included. So just about the rotation of silly 3%. De facto, and since we are talking only about the real numbers and not the fantasy figures of politics and lobby groups, the GDP-makers more than 20 times such a heavy burden, as the acquisition of free plant kingdom.

And you're more the "burden" is still dissatisfied, and make it seem easy to convince people and politics, a further taxation of capital activity is incredibly dangerous for the people. And the policy of biting, pumping more and more money from the bottom up, and is surprised that when people arrive nothing but more taxes, tax and fee increases while spending and cuts in benefits for the residents of increasingly strapped municipalities . Without a massive fiscal approach to the sizes of assets but a permanent reorganization of the state is impossible.

BRD goes DDR: Who had the good fortune of late birth and the GDR did not, he will soon be able to experience how it looked there, following the more the state could not pay its infrastructure. Where in parts of the United States today looks like when you're time away from the banks and skylines go. For there, the deficit has long been as enormous as the bankrupt state of Greece, and the creativity in the design of the official GDP data, not less. The alleged growth of the nineties, there are still only on paper (hedonisierte statistics), in truth, there was stagnation and decline.

Only when the true causes of the crisis are on the table, then a rescue in the last minute, though in pain, doable. Otherwise, we are experiencing the same decline as all civilizations in history. Unlike in the past but today we would make the information and data to a targeted action possible. Whether they are used, or at least to understand it, I think because of the classical dynamics of society and the opinion, however, for more than questionable.