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Rogert Stanley Coollection

stick out of the bag


In the 10 days since the NRW election a lot has changed. the coalition in Berlin the day before the election still a good € 22 billion from taxpayers had pressed on the eye, they called on Wahltagabend already a further 123 billion, from as part of an overall package of 750 billion euros to the German Michel.

stick So out of the bag, and the day after it was said by Chancellor Merkel already that it is also the promised tax relief be nothing. As the angry electorate would in fact also brought out his stick, and has not agreed in NRW yellow-black, and thus the FDP-spoonful of sugar is now no longer enforceable.

would have guessed it as one. So are, as suspected already that have been unpacked torture . And then took his club and the financial market, on the second day, out again: After a short relief EURO scratched on Tuesday visited again and the price of gold cracked, both in dollar terms than the euro all previous records. Something good had in any case: After the effect of the next Gigapaketes, at least for now fizzled out, the discussion about limitations of the global financial yuppies in the upper echelons of the German noble class arrived.

Since yesterday, therefore, is bludgeoned back. For the first time are forbidden in Germany short sales at German venues : "... The German Financial Supervisory Authority had banned a surprise midnight naked short selling of government bonds in the euro countries as well as shares of the ten largest financial institutions, the prohibition also applies to unsecured credit default swaps. criticized on euro government bonds. banks the German decision as a desperate ..... According to the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) the scheme is initially valid until 31 March 2011. "

course, the market players enjoy the little: " ... market participants showed little understanding of the BaFin decision. This is equal to a desperate, said the Frankfurt-based Metzler. ", To make things that Europe still does not speak with one voice, as the German solo show," said Metzler expert Özgür. "This ultimately leads to the fact that investors are confused and pull funds from the euro area." . How little some one is in Brussels said Germany's most important partner France: ". .. France was disturbed by the German advance" I think that anyone should seek such a measure at least the Council of the other Member States, "said the French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde. "Consequently, we will consider this ... We do not intend to follow the step," Lagarde said. "

The mood is thus not the best but still better than in Bangkok, where today the same flared half financial district. "dressed in red shirts protesters set at least 17 buildings on fire, including the stock exchange and the second largest department store in Southeast Asia, Central World, which was completely destroyed. ... The red shirts, which mainly come from the rural poor and supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are accusing Abhisit not to be democratically .. " writes Handelsblatt.

Important seems that the problems of the rural population, however, there "trust" of financial jugglers to be: "... The stock market closed early on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the trade was suspended. "The situation now is worse than expected and even harder to stop development," said Kavee Chukitsakem, research chief of Kasikor Securities. On placing the leader of the Red Shirts, "things have gotten out of control." According to his colleagues Kongkiat Opaswongkarn of Asia Plus Securities, it will be years until the country regains the confidence of investors. "

under fast it goes, the power struggle in NRW. Rüttgers had on May 9, although as expected, most votes received, but with just 6200 votes handed it to no one mandate more than woman power. Therefore, our days happy again Hessen-Deja-Vu. Rüttgers tried to give the cook, with the rifle using the FDP, which Once again a possible alliance denied.

sit out so long and sow discord, to the political opponents is so much in its own way, that despite the dismissal is wider governance. The chances are not bad for it. Always an exciting spectacle, as if Germany really no major problems as the question of whether another party in the largest state, now must play with the noble class or not. Bludgeoned

but was also against the currently most important man in Germany: Michael Ballack . Ausgerechent one of the opponents of the upcoming World Cup preliminary round in South Africa, Ghana's Kevin-Prince Boateng hacks, our precious football from Adidas sole. Now it's time to tackle really. Unpack beer and noisemakers and cheering at the Open viewings with a single voice Germany: Loew's boys anyway, and for us. For there indeed exists a small chance of victory.

As the new developments should be included around the outrageously expensive euro rescue package, the financial centers of the world, in the monster bureaucracy in Brussels and the purses of the citizens is still unclear. Not in the result, but in the timing. But at least the results in South Africa can look forward to.

How Long Does It Take Flagylto Work?

Sunday is election day: What have the Wolfgang and Joachim with it ...


Why is the NRW choice so important? Well, actually it is "only" a state election and really should only be fair to the country of topics and earn from. However, this was so still in any state election, federal policy has always been an influence on the election results.

This is partly due to the larger public of federal policy and the other on the importance of state elections for the balance of power between the Bundestag and Bundesrat. And as 2005 is again the largest state North Rhine-Westphalia is crucial. Rüttgers is confirmed, os, everything remains the same, to win women's power, then the black-yellow-Regeirung falls into troubles, since it can enforce its Gesetzesvorheben only limited.

So Wolfgang Schäuble before, by the Blume said, announced that he intends in the summer of 2010, the German middle class, if the blind in the middle of the Fussball-WM-enthusiasm to pull the wool over really intends ears. This conservation project so he could abschminken when strategic control is lost through the Bundesrat.

Now we are not direct, but a parliament Aryan democracy. Therefore, the citizen has auszuzüben exclusively on elections can pressure on its political representatives. And therefore are "lesson elections" against the federal government in state elections, where they actually not at all negotiable, is quite common and not entirely unjustified. On 9 May not least because Rüttgers and his Berlin offices owe their boss exactly the same lesson election against Schroeder.

What can be expected of them inclined voters now? One should not to screw up the ideas. Fiscal policy will do little, since again exclude all parties, lemmings like a government with the "evil anti-capitalist left". Even today's vote on the Greece-payments assistance, whereas in actual fact, however, only financial transfers to the gambled away creditor banks, including Germany, shows the dilemma: Union and the FDP voted in favor, all else would the scharz-yellow coalition to solve. The Greens voted in favor, and they have to own just because they have with their sunny beach and romantic rapture the Greeks, the euro, and thus the whole drama, a few years, brewed in the red-green coalition itself. The SPD may, as usual, unable to choose between plague and cholera, and will abstain from voting, only the left and is consistently voted no.

alone because no to the aid would be a horror without end, to do with the not so unlikely destruction of EURO and maybe even the EU, at least one end with terror. But as the debt of the Greeks, no less, but our higher. Wolfgang is at it to type out the first bill, which will vary with each acclaimed winner of the German team in South Africa a few bucks higher. Because then no one notices it at home first, while the Alien Jour comment rather than the digestive problems of a Ballack or a dispute over the post in the German box.

Well, how come the election? Rüttgers or power? Anyone who forms a coalition with whom? The race is tight. After the polls quite a Red-Green coalition came to power in a new MP'in Dusseldorf in question. In the case of Mrs Merkel in Berlin would have a problem. Either it continues with a shaky Bundesrat, which may work fairly well, as the Greens have begun the long march to the new liberal middle class party, and her new partner candidates do not want to alienate in any case. Or it rises, so in 2005 as the consequence of Schroeder, and seeks a new election.

This, in turn, reasonably could lead to a large black-red coalition in Berlin. Because only large coalitions are in such difficult times, capable of ordinary majorities. Could only write for Merkel uneasy question: Who is Chancellor, or how I hies of the still, uh, Steinmeier?

now but you should not put Rüttgers items in Dusseldorf or Wolfgang's still secret trick list is archived. Since he, despite all the successes Mrs force almost certainly get a slightly larger group together to form a government he is in doubt even with the Greens and FDP pull together.

My advice is therefore a continuation of Rüttgers term. Then it comes to Angela and Wolfgang on only on one thing: Running in The German soccer victory to victory. Which in fact were flying out in the first round already, then the German Michel would be so pissed that they would turn smoothly in the discussion of the coming austerity measures in Berlinopolis in fairly "uncomprehending" way. Germany coach Joachim Loew is thus with its Bavarian and German national team in the Berliner duty.

But even that is unlikely in the first round, we meet, thanks to luck of the draw, no really big opponents. Even in the first knockout round, we take due probably to the feasible Slovenes, and possibly in the quarter finals to Argentina. At least until that third July in Cape Town is the coalition that is time to embark really big nails without heads.

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The Gordian knot: the currency reform


Some comment on my blog featured the legitimate question: Currency Reform (WR), how is the look for specifically? Now, currency reforms are not as rare as many believe, in fact, they are so often such as financial crises just as well.

In Germany alone, in the last century, two, namely 1924 and 1948. A currency reform is when there is a noticeable redistribution of the money resulting from claims to the GDP. Such a process has many names, sometimes it falls on none. Distinguished from a WR you have, of course Pure Transforming, such as DM to euro at a fixed exchange rate to remain at the get all the obligations. This change of course not change the oppressive relations between bank assets and available GDP. Roughly one can distinguish

farsighted WR, so about 1948 in Germany, or forced by circumstances such as the WR of 1924. You also have to complete between (Germany 1924 and 1948) and partial (eg U.S. dollars 1971) differ.

U.S. dollars 1971? Was there something? Well, in 1969, initially called the French that the U.S. guaranteed gold for their dollar reserves,. Other countries followed suit. The United States had not the necessary gold and refused to pay their foreign debts. The result was the collapse of the force since World War II Bretton Woods system . Thus, proclaimed on 15 August 1971: "We must protect the position of the U.S. dollar as a supporting pillar of monetary stability throughout the world. In the last seven years have seen an average each year to an international monetary crisis. Who benefits from such crises? Not the workers, not investors, not the true producer of assets. The winners are the international money speculators. Because they live with crises, they help to create crises. In recent weeks, the speculators a war with all means against the U.S. dollar have sparked. The strength of the currency of a nation based on the strength of its economy - and the American economy is by far the strongest of the world. Accordingly, I have asked the finance minister, the defense of the dollar against speculators necessary measures to take. I have instructed Finance Minister Connally, temporarily suspend the convertibility of the dollar in gold or other reserve funds, except for amounts and on terms that are considered in the interest of monetary stability and be in the best interest of the United States lying. [...] This action will bring us no friends among the international money dealers, but our concern is primarily the American workers and fair competition all over the world. [...] I am determined to ensure that the American dollar will never again be a pawn in the hands of international speculators. "

The Words you have to look familiar, they are presented in the current situation in many varieties. It was not the young Oscar Lafontaine, who ran anti-capitalism going on this rant, it was the arch-conservative U.S. President Richard Nixon. The result of the abolition of the gold bond, which was quite simply nothing but a contract and breach of trust against the dollar creditors was, was the fleet depreciation of the dollar. Even in 1971 there were already about to DM minus 14%. In the following years halved the value of the dollar and thus the foreign debt. The U.S. had to half of its foreign loans and were tied back so well, otherwise we would in fact bankrupt Sign. As a result, the Fiat Money, and therefore purely debt based money introduced, and Ronald Reagan were unleashed and whipped the money markets in the globalization. And built the thickest of all bubbles in the world financial history.

Why could the U.S. at that time so just get rid of your huge foreign debt, while the much smaller Greece, financially actually a "flying ship", not now supposed to go? Well, the United States had borrowed massively above all because of the European recovery and its anti-Communist wars in Korea and Vietnam. The official borrowers came mainly from Europe now and you could be the reasoning that these debts were so taken up only for their benefit, and thus ultimately paid together, were unable to escape so easily. The halving of the claims against the big strong brother had therefore to be accepted largely without complaint.

Today the situation is, however, including the USA, much more threatening. For the main creditors are located in emerging countries and emerging markets and commodities in Asia. And they have on the U.S. policy is not so much hat. Ehr been the opposite, because there are too many old scores with the colonization and the Cold War open. In addition, the total adopted today dizzying proportions. And sits between the millstones again disoriented once a divided Europe, with its Asian-Arab enclave Israel. The cuckoo's egg of the last world conflagration and revanchist fire to the neighbor, as once the Versailles treaties in 1871 and 1918.

How do you get in this world political situation now, the cow of the ice?

Well, this one must of course again between what was right and what is politically feasible to distinguish.

What would be correct?

would correct an immediate and complete monetary reform of dollars, euros and pounds. It would be all prices (Waren. wages, rents, etc.) 1:1 in New Dollars, New € and Neu-pounds, and all assets and obligations, 1:10, or about one new dollar for 10 dollars exchange Alt.

You could replace the assets and liabilities also 1:5 or 1:2, but that would be far less sustainable. 1:2 takes only a few years before the old bubble is back, brings a generation of 1:5, 1:10 brings back the economic miracle.

What makes politically feasible?

This is again a question of power. Insignificant countries such as Iceland or Greece can be any drivers for before him, powerful countries like the United States and Russia have very different ways. Including the Soviet Union and East Germany collapsed because of their not comparable external debt together. In particular, the Russian ruble inflated enormously since 1992, so that in 1998 he replaced by the new ruble exchange in 1:100.

The Russia did not harm the medium term. For there is a large and resource-rich country. After a brief crisis of confidence in the financial world like to invest again in the, now fairly stable new rubles, and Russia is now a new economic miracle of the winners of the Cold War as a member of the emerging BRIC countries and little debt.

The U.S. could do it theoretically. However, they must hurry up to international deals made to prevent breakage. The longer they wait, more real goods, buildings, ports, companies, etc., etc.. to go over for worthless dollars in foreign hands. In contrast, no currency reform will help, but only war.

Now the largest U.S. creditor sits just makes the biggest political rival, namely China. In turn the largest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds and supplier in the U.S. is no longer available wealth goods. This is the thing for the United States makes that difficult. In addition, there are the raw material countries, including the oil states of the Arabian Peninsula, such as the so fundamentally important Saudi Arabia, major creditors in dollars. If we choose to order their dollar assets bounces, you get sensitive trouble.

the U.S. reiterates the game from 1971, the medium-term shocks are likely to be dangerous. China had long since upgraded to a massive and soon the U.S. fleets are wicked competition. For the loss of currently 2,400,000,000,000 USD you will reciprocate, and the cash in anyway threatened Taiwan. What is all the more easier if the Americans, the fuel bill their carrier fleets can no longer pay.

equipment continues to Israel in the Focus. Because Israel can only survive economically and militarily by substantial grants. For example, the AAA rating of the unbreakable bonds of Israel, without which Israel any more than Greece could refinance. And the equally shaky Saudi feudal monarchy, with nuclear weapons on Pakistan Connection in hand, by the dollar could crash shaken. But then it may be in Israel soon become quite hot.

Instead, now the U.S. is on the bleeding of the euro, the dollar still get some time in life. But even that is dangerous, for the second guarantee for Israel's just Europe, especially West Germany. And the EU is with its euro-assets in commodity and emerging markets as well as not much better.

What is politically feasible?

Well, the situation is tricky, and I envy no one, now that the the wires must draw and, incidentally, still has an inconvenient conscience. Particularly devastating in this situation is to look the fact that by only a few Parliamentarians these financial situation.

For example, the belief that one can get the cow with Save the ice. Because debt can be in a system of Fiat Money's not quite wegsparen principle. One can only against public private or public to private debt exchange, and these are also generally in the sum not less but greater. Economically debts are removed, but not economic terms.

Unfugsglaube This makes the prediction of the fiscal Misconduct by the government and the sequence of events, as now in Greece, just as easily. To where it is not easy to recognize the connections. This makes those who know how Ackermann Blankfein, so easily harness the governments for their own purposes and to drive in front of them.

order in the next few years not to hopelessly into chaos, are in principle two scenarios, at least in broad terms possible:

First, inflation:

a) Instead of the owners of capital at short notice to receive any, ie outset pointless saving efforts at the expense of the average citizen to run, fired one inflation.

b) Because this increases the price in relation to the assets, liabilities and obligations disproportionately destroyed and thus effectively the debt. But of course, any property, in particular, the accrued or promised retirement benefits and pensions and life insurance, etc. pp. belong.

c) The above is already done, the quantitative easing said program of self-purchases of government bonds in the Anglo-Americans is precisely this strategy. The ECB will most likely do so soon, make .

d) lose sooner or later the creditors of their main asset. Not the filthy lucre, no faith. Then begins to rise, the buying boom and prices. Bought everything that is recoverable, and equities, real estate and companies. Especially by foreign sovereign fonts that need to save their dwindling foreign exchange reserves. The
Now, however, also another sought-after product: arms.

e) in the place are the ghosts, the owners of capital that want to save the consumers and the prices and hence wealth, keep it stable, the workers and employees want more pay.

f) At the site, users can choose between Greek conditions or wages. That latter one should not now do against the currently followed strategy is preferred. Since the FDP is involuntarily quite right when she wants to lower taxes despite state and terminal charges. For then are first calmed the creators and the money fueled consumption and the real economy, rather than to stifle completely. The consequences are different, than expected from her:

g) This will turn the price sooner or later even more so, the hyperinflation begins. Wages should always rush behind, the purchasing power continues to decline, as the value of the debts and assets. And hence the retirement. Especially in countries with capital-based pensions, such as the U.S., this is devastating. begin

h) The feeling betrayed citizens to riot. In Germany This is not quite as bad as this is the pay. And that does not refer to fictitious profits, that is, new debt, but on real GDP. This is the place after the currency reform quickly again.

i) After two or three years is the spiral to an end, the faster the better, one must only print properly a lot of money in the ECB. A new currency is introduced after collapse, when 4 billion euros or dollars for a Chinese renminbi must be paid, and everything is back to zero hour. However, not

j) all because the Chinese are now half of America is. Similarly, other state funds. The discontinuation of the debt by inflation is the price loss of power in the world bought.

Second Reform:

a) First, should these relationships in the public spread clear. And not only by insignificant bloggers and opposition politicians, but by economists and the government, and the exclusion of the banks and financial oligarchy inexpensive, economists. It must be very clear: The solution of the global debt crisis is possible only through a unparitätische currency reform! Who wants this must also be "restructuring" call.

b) You must not ever let show of the big players, especially the United States. America tries to EURO make weak, so the dollar remains strong. Then one may not engage. Here too, plain text spoken, you have to pinch the U.S. right to shoot across the bow.

c) Requirement for point b is of course a jointly acting Europe. The way you get impossible with the eternal contract wrangling. Perhaps a to use all cross-party, emergency government with the most extensive powers.

d) In particular, we must cut off the arms of banks: investment banking in its present form, must be stopped completely. This means that all derivatives be carried gamblers, CDS's declared void and prohibited. Following to Chapter 11 banks are managed and restructured. Only traditional commercial banks in the real lending money and central bank will control privileges.

e) investment banks on the other hand need to get their money in the way of normal lending operations and numbers all normal taxes, like any other business. Including the VAT of 19% of their "products". So what can one do against all claims of the financial industry, though not without their own. This creates frustration initially powerful, medium term investors but thanks to their deposits in safe and predictable conditions. The positive effect is even greater if the EU does this, and the U.S. do not. Because then the capital good is taken to Europe, the miserable gambler in derivatives but the U.S..

f) You must make the property owner is clear, one tenth is still better than zero. Zero threat to the chaos, but 100 million 1 billion, so no one is a poor man

g) From the time being, sustaining strong position of U.S. and EU carried out a full international monetary reform, $ and €, under destruction 90 % of world debt. This would in particular the developing countries much more to come good as even the most well-meaning development aid.

h) Unlike the first scenario (inflation could) to buy up foreign debt less opportunity to work with these liabilities, the domestic silverware. That's mean, but otherwise you have even after the currency reform, the situation that you have indeed new and stable currency, but do not own real estate companies and more. The otherwise inevitable shift of power one can escape with active act at least a good part of the soil. That is pure Machiavellianism, but still better than complete failure.


Well of course you get a (monetary) war around, not both scenarios result not only bad, but real blood. The slump in the EU and U.S. are inevitable and one way or another never quite avoidable. However, we must distinguish between blood and all, choose a lot of blood. I do not want to experience the Israeli corpses bobbing up to Cyprus.

undoubtedly requires a targeted approach by far more courage and understanding, than anything by salami tactics (inflation) from degenerating into chaos. Especially when you consider that the latter experience, any political opponents, as alleged culprits can stick to his leg. Which in turn establishes the weakness of democracy in such situations the century, increasing the chance for worldwide GröFaz'e disproportionately. Democrats tend to react, to act rather than in the latter it is often reversed. If Western Democracies are therefore preferable to inflation, so that's somewhere of course. But one risks to his own demise.

The time to act is very scarce, a further slide down and her priceless, and now not ministering, debt is dangerous. Also dangerous to blame each other for the blame in the shoes to do it between Democrats or between democracies. Greece and the three dead from Athens, a first warning sign for it.

The users of the day and do not hope that the next day solve your problems by yourself, like Horace in the 1st century . BC sealed:

Tu ne quaesieris (scire nefas) quem mihi, quem tibi
finem di dederint, Leuconoe, nec Babylonios
temptaris numeros. Ut melius quicquid erit pati!
Seu pluris hiemes seu tribuit Iuppiter ultimam,

quae nunc oppositis debilitat pumicibus mare
Tyrrhenum, sapias, vina liques et spatio brevi
spem longam reseces. Dum loquimur, fugerit invida
aetas: carpe diem , quam minimum credula postero.

Frag nicht (denn Wissen ist ein Frevel), welches Ende die Götter mir, welches sie dir, Leukonoe, zugedacht haben, und versuche dich nicht an babylonischer Astrologie!

Wie viel besser doch, was immer sein mag, zu ertragen! Ob Jupiter noch viele Winter uns zugeteilt hat oder den letzten, der breaks now opposing the Tyrrhenian sea cliffs - live with mind clarifying the wine and restrict remote hope of short duration!

Even as we speak is envious time has passed: Seize the day, and think as little as possible to the next!