The Federal Statistical Office exactly a growth of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2010 calculated. Would go on like this then came fabulous 9.1% growth achieved on an annual basis, almost like conditions in China at the moment for us. It seems reason enough for all the newspapers once again the end of the valley floor and rise to proclaim without end. Only thing is keeping it real? First of all, the value is of course very gratifying and, at least in the short term is hard to expect more industry bankruptcies and layoffs.
However, it would be naive to now declare the end of all problems. For the mighty Plus Germany owes its first extraordinary Position in world trade patterns. Thus, the FRG, along with China the world's leading exporter, and benefits, far more than other economies from rising industrial demand in emerging countries, not least the direct competitor China. The FRG is also of the old big players in the clearly best-positioned players, far better than U.S., Japan and the rest of the EU, not to mention Britain altogether. We are therefore of the old pretender, when the young reach the same pike from emerging slowly threatening size. Nevertheless, the carp is still completely over-fertilized and shrunk the number of fish-eating concern. The significantly disproportionate rash of German GDP in the last three months is certainly not to permanent event in the coming years, but it fits in the series of erratic fluctuations in the stock markets, commodities and precious metals prices. Thus, the Dax rose in March from about 5500 to more than 6200 in April (+13%) in May to then fall back to around 5650 (-10%) and air until August, increased again up to 6350 (+12% ). The Brent crude oil rose by about the same rate of 70 to 88.8 USD per barrel (27%), fell again to 70 (-21%) and then rose again to 83 (+19%). Even the relatively stable currency staged a corresponding indicator Gold Rally, from high at 8.6. at € 1043 per ounce, it fell to 889 at 28.7. (-14.8%) And then again at 12.8. 945 (+6.3%), rising to climb. Ditto, of course the dollar to euro exchange rate.
These are all signs of great Marktnervösität, and even the 2.2% more ominous symptom of the crisis as a sign of the rising sun. Fortunately, we can complain in Germany at a relatively high level and we will also be among the last to bite the dogs. But, they will bite.
The BRD has a strong trade surplus, the push for German industry is due to the demand and consumption in emerging countries but also elsewhere, including in Europe and the United States. Accordingly, the domestic consumption is on us not supporting, while countries with a trade deficit, especially the U.S., of course, are heavily dependent on domestic consumption. While the main export product of the German quality, some unique, industrial goods, the main export product of the Americans in two decades of paper. There are simply debt. And not figuratively, it's actually U.S. government securities, bonds, mortgages and certificates such as those of Lehman Brothers, the collapse of the 2008 financial disaster fired, and in particular by German banks sought desperately and bought have been and are still the the trade balance have to balance the world's largest economy and still constitute the largest and "most valuable" export product.
And such debts are the reason why all booms in the last 10 years have not reached the average German citizens and consumers. Also, the current upswing small it will not. The additional money goes first in profits, and from there to the accounts of the investors and not in a round of wage increases and new hires, which would result in less tax, fee and tax increases to a larger average purchasing power. leave for 10 years to placate the unions with the same old arguments that have been exercised wage restraint, it has taken on increasing taxes to layoffs unacceptable increased working hours and more. Always with the promise that in the near future by new and better paying jobs, and catching up in income, would again balanced. Done is the opposite, more and more legally secure full settings are replaced by more and more part-time and temporary work contracts, outsourcing under the subsistence level, increase Hartz IV and the denial of a decent minimum wage.
In the next wage round draw the same arguments again: The "recovery was not yet stable enough" (which is true) that "international pressure on costs is through wage dumping too large" (which is true), the "raw material prices rising" (which in most cases is true) and the "oppressive cost of capital" no big jumps allowed (which in general, except for executives and bankers, also true), and taken, always happy, "Non-labor costs were too high" (which is true) and so instead of the employers are now disproportionately to workers to be glued to the leg. The soup is garnished with the demand of the Institute of German Industry for an extension working until the 70th Of age. Which in practice only to a significant reduction in pension benefits, and thus reduce domestic purchasing power runs out.
Rejoicing So on a summer recreation, not only on the beach, but also in the industrial front. As always after the rest, then comes back to the hard work: How the rescheduling problems of Europe that refinancing the Euro-banks, the impending China crash as GAU-case in the world economy, doctored balance sheet figures the Americans, the growth rates suggest that there are not, but as an ongoing crisis that the U.S. middle class as Motor consumption in the world has long been driven into hopeless corner. And the housing bubble is either in the U.S. over, nor will it pass by China. And the crisis of commercial real estate, not only in the U.S. is still ahead. Since these were in the boom years 2007 and 2008, mostly placed with only 3 to 5-year loans, the bigger bomb starts from 2011 to glow in the bank balance sheets.
And the FRG? That is to their own problems and other liabilities have added, because each euro area country, the ailing German disproportionately asked to pay. For the self-weakening or even collapsing partner countries can (or want) to take over not the cost of even sicker neighbors. In the foreseeable future will accumulate these "special fund" to a huge package. Because, the devil takes the hindmost.
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