Not the brilliant election victory of the SPD in Hamburg, not even half the confession of "free doctor to Buyreuth and Google Mountain" , no, the apocalypse already began later than in 2009 and is now starting to take trip .
In the wake of West German little luxuries now falling into place, the complete structures of power in Arabia. This, of course be causally related to the financial crisis, because the gigantic amounts of money being pumped into the financial system since demand for more and more, and seemingly safe, return forms. Also the stupidest Investor veer some time that some paper, including the greenback itself, not the glue that is worth it together.
and why are all unimpaired things now be the target of speculation. The bonds can never be repaid is clear, however, real estate, companies, patents and raw materials, which are insurance against complete loss of value. In particular, natural ingredients, which include not only dispensable things like gold and silver, but also the food base for the world's population. In particular, the latter speculation driving up prices of staple foods in the world so high, that the most vulnerable members the globalized world as the first formally goes to air, and the bread from. The seemingly sudden uprising of the Arab world comes from exactly. Because if you have nothing to lose except his hunger, then the power of the most cruel despot fades away.
the Western democracies in Europe and America look to the perplexed, even no trace of enthusiasm, from where. Because of power politics point of view, a stable despotism always better than an unstable and uncontrollable democracy. Especially since democracy alone does not make anyone sick. Whoever first time replaced the despot, he has to, he can not do anything else to fail. For so long ruled the world power of big money, so long eats the yield hungry any progress once again.
The increasingly chaotic situation in North Africa Investors made nervous : "... The riots in Libya, provided for nervousness in the stock market. The deteriorating situation in Libya has weighed on Monday, the shares of European oil companies and the chemical giant BASF. At the same time, oil prices moved sharply: The price of a barrel (159 liters) of Brent crude rose to a two and a half-year high and cost $ 104.98. .. ". Not the corpses on the streets of Tripoli and Benghazi , but the raw material supply of the West, the nerve of those stocks in Africa and the Middle East depends makes antsy. At least for the commodity traders but the effect is self-reinforcing, because speculators driving oil prices is driving food prices is driving speculators etc.
Thus, the spiral begins to turn of death, as it indicated in 2009 already. Ultimately caused the whole thing through the plate- negation of the immediate relationship between exponentially increasing capital stock and choked gross national product and national income, now the whole world in the final phase of the financial meltdown sparked can fight fire with oil .
The uprising of the Arab world is only the beginning of a worldwide Conflagration: Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, the last relatively stable countries, Jordan and Saudi Arabia as the dominoes topple. But even in countries like Pakistan and even in the crucial task of China, across states: fed up, we are the people!
We are experiencing the same effect as at the end of the Roman Empire: while the authoritative empire already own last illness; start the periphery nations, the democratic model that is not only freedom, but promises, above all, prosperity and a full stomach, for the discover.
Unfortunately, this uprising is several generations too late, since the late date and the last previous stability, only the fact of economic linkage and synchronization with the prosperous West is due. The revolutionary people of the Arab countries want democracy, but thinks and prosperity. And you will not drive out the devil with Beelzebub, they do not want a clerical regime of the mullahs as a replacement for the old masochistic kleptocracies of Mubarak and his associates.
Only: As nice as it sounds, that everything can only fail. For apart from the fact that these countries have neither a democratic tradition have little need Democrats, they have one thing above all: endless debt, the debt out of profits product of which they themselves have never had anything. Including, but not only, have taken over 40 billion dollars in their hand luggage into the Mubarak miserable exile. After all, about a third of the Egyptian's GDP.
why does not a democrat the food cheaper and the working people richer. On the contrary, as the patterns of Western countries Democrats would not dream of it, the unfair debt of the countries to cancel there, but instead to fear for their oil, they cheer at the same time further speculation on new records. An opportunity had now only the few Arab countries that have rich oil sources that are not in the hands of foreign Oil companies are, and if you would have an oligarchy that would be willing to share evenly.
which you can dream, the reality looks different: "threatened Suwaidscha .. A spokesman for the tribe, his clan would paralyze the Libyan oil industry, if the regime is not with the" suppression of the protesters' stop. Should not give in state power, will the flow of oil to Western countries "within 24 hours of" cut, quoted al-Jazeera, the tribal leader ... ". And goes on to write the mirror : "... to riots occurred in Marrakech, Tangier, Tetuan, Larache, Al Hoceima, Sefrou and Guelmin. Among the rioters were many young people according to the minister and ex-offenders that would have bent on looting in particular. stored in Larache attacked violent offenders a customs station in which drugs and alcohol were seized. After the balance sheet of the Minister were a total of 83 shops and buildings, set 20 bank branches and 66 cars on fire or damaged ... "
Given the threat of chaos instead of democratic stability are the reactions of the West behave very . In particular, are Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in Focus. So writes the Süddeutsche : "... The wave of public protests in Bahrain and Yemen, the United States will present a further, very difficult to be overcome a foreign policy dilemma in the region. On one side holds the White House laid on the fundamental support for the democracy movement in the Arab world. On the other hand there is the unspoken fear in the room, the protests could affect U.S. strategic interests, especially in these two countries sensitive. In Bahrain, Washington has its main naval base in the Middle East. In Yemen, could destabilize the autocratic regime of President Ali Abdullah Salih, the fight against the terrorist group al-Qaida make it difficult to have found refuge. " .
Without Peace-against-will of Barack Obama in Washington, we would have long since run-Iran war, the delayed but not canceled. Especially the hegemony over the oil-rich Middle East is an essential source of Western wealth and vital for the world in power. The western enclave of Israel is situated in this most uncomfortable dilemma , the NZZ: "... The Saudi Association for Civil and Political Rights has published a statement on Wednesday in which they convert the Islamic kingdom into a constitutional monarchy suggests. ... The Interior Minister, Prince Nayif, dismissed and should be tried for human rights violations to justice. Also called for the unification of the release of all political prisoners. ... " and Handelsblatt writes: ".... The protests in the region adjacent to Bahrain took place on Thursday, but were only announced on Saturday. In Saudi Arabia, a particularly strict interpretation of Wahhabi Islam is predominant. ... Protests against the governments were on Saturday and from Oman and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa known. In Djibouti, the U.S. maintained its only military base in Africa ...." and Basel confirms "... The protests and riots in the Arab World, according to the Saudi Arabian Prince Talal bin Abdul Aziz also be dangerous for the rule of King Abdullah, when this reform in Saudi Arabia are not accelerating. Abdul Aziz, a half brother of King, stated on Thursday in the BBC Arabic, yet it is not too late to prevent protests in Saudi Arabia. ... ".
There's hardly think of stability, it will come sooner or later lead to military conflicts, Sun the world : "... Whether the remarks on Sunday on it indicating that Saudi Arabia is considering intervening in Bahrain, or whether it merely a reflection of growing Concern amongst the Saudi leadership had remained unclear. Some experts on the region have, however, have long warned that a concerted challenge could trigger the Shiites to the monarchy in Bahrain, an intervention of Saudi Arabia, which itself has a restless Shiite minority. "
cases the Western-oriented despotisms in rows to , then the security situation in Israel is sensitive : ".. The demonstrations have nothing to do with the toothless parties that will give the monarchy a democratic facade, and nothing with the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood. While trying to hijack the protest movement, but is particularly successful it is not. "People want social and political rights, not an Islamic solution," says one of the demonstrators. .. ". Still, the Islamists have no chance with the people, but with the almost certain failure of the promise of democracy of freedom and prosperity (!) The hour of the radicals is in very near future. Meanwhile, by even drive again Iranian warships the Suez Canal: "... Iranian warships have happened the first time in years the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. ... The ships were reportedly course towards Syria. The passage was the Iranians previously denied several times. In Israel, even the announcement of the passage had caused a considerable stir. "
The Arab countries which, although the mouth to the Arab, but in fact stood on the west-Israeli side, increasing the uncertainty. Even the anti-US Iran, not even in his region suffered trembling for some time before the power of the street : "... On Monday, tens of thousands of demonstrators through the streets of Iranian cities went to protest despite a ban against the government, was heard repeatedly by the state police had only been called up. The Revolutionary Guards, however, who were otherwise always one of the party were not in use, it said. For in the lower ranks there is always more Sympathizers of the opposition. ... "
As soon as the oil flow from the Near East seriously stalled comes also take advantage of the new world power China, the opportunity to take up the waning influence of the Americans, there will be military interventions need.
For even the world powers, China and USA are in the grip of commodities trader (Handelsblatt) : "... Bernanke dismissed concerns that threatens the last strong increase in food prices, a growing price pressure. "Inflation remains relatively low overall," said Bernanke. " and Wall Street Online seconded: "... Inflation will return to the USA, and probably with giant steps. .. Still more bitter the current U.S. labor market data were again disappointed. Here the figures show that the U.S. labor market does not want to get to his feet ... The labor market also receives no support from the government, the rescue packages have helped only the financial markets, meaning banks and insurance, but it never arrived in the labor market . And now they get the bill presents: high unemployment and high inflation - a lethal cocktail! do not be fooled by the phony employment data, the only "Willing" Jobseekers record and not those who have given their hopes. The "unofficial" unemployment in the U.S. beyond the 20 percent mark! By zero interest rate policy, commodity prices have increased dramatically, first by beating on producer prices, are now arrived at the high prices to consumers. Thus, the U.S. central bank is faced with a dilemma. ".
And as it rumbles China in the Popular Front : "... The spark of popular uprisings in Egypt and other Arab countries have jumped on Sunday for the first time in China. Security forces had in the center of Beijing and Shanghai dissolve crowds after it on the web had given a call to a Chinese 'jasmine revolution'. However, state security and uniformed police were apparently many hours advance notice, took information from Hong Kong determined that more than a hundred activists ... "
The medium-term result will be the one that taught us the history on many occasions: Local Arab forces around Israel will soon change her face. Even if only arise once democracies in the broadest sense, they have no chance to fill the stomachs of the people in time. The West will have to disappoint them, as he himself can not be better.
This disappointment will pave way: First, by migration, flows towards the countries where supposedly milk and honey, Lampedusa is a space at the seams of Tunisian refugees via Libya and still do on a much larger throat. But that's not the end of the story. In China, it will come sooner or later also to revolutionary movements, and Africa is not yet awakened from its lethargy. Here, the virus had become untenable promises of the Western democracies will attack us soon on his feet. What if you please we do, if only a few thousand boat people sail across the Mediterranean, but a million-strong army of nomadic starving Africans on the Middle Eastern country just after the road bridge on foot looking for Europe? In about one billion inhabitants mostly loose chance there is not an unrealistic assumption.
remains to mention Latin America, especially Mexico, where an induced by U.S. demand drug war rages, who demanded in recent years, more deaths than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq together: "results: More than 34 500 deaths .... In a series of attacks on taxis since Friday in the Mexican city of Acapulco twelve o'clock taxi drivers and passengers were killed. Four suspects were arrested as the police of the State of Guerrero announced on Sunday. Five were found dead on Friday, seven more murders followed on Saturday and Sunday ...." . Provisionally take the massacre of tourists still curious : "... the drug war in Mexico seems to attract an entirely new type of holiday guests. According to a study by security firm Grupo de Seguridad Industrial Multisistemas for several months, the phenomenon of dark tourism is observed. The prototype of this "adventure tourists" is about 35 years old and wealthy, he is from the U.S. or Europe. This clientele it attracts quite deliberately to scenes of terrorist attacks or massacres that Mexico has to offer plenty. .. ". However, it is likely that here in the opposite direction at some point 112 million Mexicans the U.S. borders are becoming wobbly storm, a problem that is now virulent.
Second, the inevitable disappointment in hatred of everything Western, especially on the turn then defenseless Israel in the center of the upheavals. Together with the newly identified open world and the question of power will result from military conflicts that can possibly look like the second world war nor as romantic jousting.
Thirdly, and this is often forgotten is that climate warming is also a side effect of the FIAT money system. Because this system can exist permanently only if there is a steady and exponential growth. Always with the same wealth, year after year it is not, it must grow stronger and stronger in order to ensure the return on investment. And the last to pay this bill is, after the people are the environment. The Klimaerwärmumg it is currently in the southern hemisphere, the area has a much smaller country than the north, increasingly dry and uncomfortably hot. In contrast, vast areas of land in the north, which were previously too cold and inhospitable, very comfortable and suitable for colonization. The consequence: hunger and the struggle for water will lead to local wars in the south and migration to the north, like in the direction of the vast sparsely populated areas of the Russian Federation and Canada, but also into areas of present-day China.
These migrations are limits as easily, but may be bloody, blow up like right now the dictatorships in North Africa. Also migrations are, as financial collapse, not uncommon in world history. The last was in no way associated with the fall of Rome, but 65 years ago with the upheavals of the Second World War. The world in 2050 you will, or your children and grandchildren, no longer can see again.
would avoid all this? Well, with much reason and modesty much already. But who expected so much. Because it would have to "only" the worldwide distribution relationship back in order Bring do that is, a debt and assets reform in dollars and euros. And etaiblieren best a monetary and economic system, not that the growth is dependent. In and of itself just a technical problem that occurs once every hundred years. A simple problem but it always brings the same means in order: with war. order regularly thereafter to get that, what could have been reasonably easy to predict can do: A debt-and asset reform.
For reason and modesty is not the most common human cause, but rather prejudices, selfishness and greed. The Narrator in the Rocky Horror Picture Show did it once with the following verses succinctly:
And crawling, on the planet's face, some insects
, called the human race.
Lost in time, and lost in space ... and meaning.
The maturity of reason and modesty, which is the world's earliest after the next largest World War.
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