it again a few months have passed, and thus the time and opportunity to observe the development of the economy on the basis of official statistics.
of crucial Importance is of course the development of the assets / GDP ratio. For this we draw again the figures approached the Federal Bank, which currently range up to May 2010 and consider the first graph. Here are the numbers from 1950 until May 2010, in billion €, identifying them as the Bundesbank as the sum of all financial institutions in Germany. The blatant pitch is unmistakable, especially when you consider that the GDP in 2009 just having good 2400 million €.
The uniformly exponential rise which is due to the dynamics of compound interest assets to expect otherwise, has the first look at three irregularities: a) Around 1990, a violent jump up, by the addition of East Germany was created. Much new money for low GDP. b) For 2000, the dotcom slump. While increasing the assets (= assets = liabilities) to grow, but the shock is clearly visible. c) the third bend but 2008 is different: he has clearly for the first time down to about 5% by the way. This came after the Lehman bankruptcy.
The last Knick voted first hopeful, because if the assets go back, then there would also be a chance the nerve assets to GDP ratio improved. For this we consider the latest development from 1991 to 2010 more precisely in the next graphic.
Since the collapse of the assets (the are the values of assets, loans, etc. pp.) coincided with a slump in GDP is around 5% in 2009, has done for the assets / GDP ratio of more than 3 little, here is no improvement seen. Another noteworthy feature is the easily discernible increase in assets / GDP ratio of 2 to more bearable no more pain and more manageable three. This increase coincides exactly with the release of investment banking for commercial banks by the U.S. in the 90s.
However, one must wonder where the nearly 600 billion euros remained. Lehman Brothers only to create an overall loss 50-75 billion dollars, it can not hang it. This can figures from the Bundesbank, unfortunately not directly read out. The total number of assets (= assets, assets, credit, etc.) is always with the liabilities (= deposits, capital) in balance.
is unclear, the foreign trade balance of the banking industry, is not so looked like a hawk, as on the external balance of the real economy. Also unclear how a bank to get money away, because even if you sell lousy assets, so you get fresh money or other assets in exchange. Allowance, except for the bond issue by going bankrupt never destroyed but simply moved to other hands. So where was the considerable sum?
In the search after the coal is one, what a surprise, at one of the largest investment banks in the world, the Deutsche Bank find. In its annual report we find the lost billions. For Ackermann, the bank your total assets in 2009 decreased by more than 700 billion euros, from 2202 to 1501 billion €.
Assuming their positions, we also see where the difference arose. It was born out of the assets position "at fair value financial assets" with the lion's share of the sub-item "Positive market values from derivative financial instruments" is . But this point makes a loss of 630 billion euros. In the balanced balance sheet, the point is found in the liabilities (= deposit) under "Negative fair value of derivative financial instruments" , and the fair value of total assets at fair value financial obligations "in accordance with , on of 1334 good 722 billion € (-612 € billion) fell.
the distinct kink in the all-German balance we owe so only a single, but by far the largest investment bank, headed by Mr.. Ackermann. Therefore, we can baptize the balance quiet break "Ackermann-kink". Unfortunately, from the balance sheet is not clear who the victims of the reduced "financial Obligations "of the Deutsche Bank.
This first of the following graphics:
In the above snippet, we see the effect, had the Josef Ackermann on the record of the DB. Before and since his arrival in 2002 languished, DB carelessly to himself, with total assets of less than 1000 billion euros, after all, already about half of the then German GDP's. Ackermann was chosen as 2006 on the then chief, the post was the first Sun from right. With the help of investment banking, he catapulted to 2008, total assets to an incredible € 2202 billion, which is almost equal to the total German GDP. And that brings together alone in a single bank, no wonder if Merkel Acki Birthday invites coffee, because it is indeed to "eye level".
The Lehman Crash, the situation changed. For now came the financial derivatives that Ackermann had that huge volume built into disrepute. One has to wonder whether this is negative or clean air bookings. For the capital and reserves for 2008 is almost € 32 billion (1.5% of total assets) for 2009 and almost 38 billion € (2.5% of total assets). Here, then, no loss, but even a gain of about 6 billion or approximately 19%. A return with which Ackerman was last boast good. When you consider how tiny the equity in relation to the total balance still is, but evil has a swan.
is also interesting to post "Loans business" under assets. For that is exactly the classic commercial banking business with the real economy. This item amounted to € € 269 billion in 2008, well and good in 2009, only 258 billion. On the one hand, seen from the fact that the traditional business improved slightly in 2008 accounted for only 12.2% and in 2009 only 17.2%. Far more than 80% of business so the investment, or better said, the inflation of financial statements without substance. On the other hand, is seen also by how little actually the real economy money from the huge cake needs and why the banks are so dependent on derivatives trading.
The item is now in question after the fair value method reviewed financial derivatives. "Fair value", that fair value is a newer method of accounting in order to give banks the option values for which there is currently no market no longer be accounted for even with a positive value, instead they write all need.
It would be interesting to know now, of course, how the liabilities-item sets together exactly, so who has the question papers with their deposits. This follows from the balance sheet but is not of course given to commercial confidentiality DB. Ideally, it would be a clean air booking. Ackerman bought in 2006 or about, say, derivative securities at a price 100th The increase in the bull market to 2008 to 500 and accounted for under market price and make the climb. After 2008, they are really value-free, but are accounted for at fair value by 200. That would be still a profit, but never realized because an air reservation without the one euro would be more flowing than the original 100th
likely, however, is that on the liability side of banks and a host of people from Europe and around the world romp that are joined at very different times and prices there. Little wonder I would, if also the us beloved government-backed and depp AGAINST country banks in the states belong. Their budgets will come under pressure in the appropriate accounting stress, in doubt for the course is to stand up again, the German Michel. In any case, the figures show how fragile and investment depends on the German financial sector, especially the German bank.
The stress can turn well to the rates of change dA / dt read off of assets. The rate of change is, in principle, the effective return on assets, provided that the financial engineering net trade contribution is close to zero. It is these effective yields for the strain GDP's care and the workers and employees of the real economy, sucking the money out of pocket. The effect is then that in spite of profit and increased production of all types of inflation-adjusted net disposable income of the population, on average, decreases.
grow As the total assets / liabilities A exponentially, must consist of (financial) mathematical reasons, the change grow dA / dt exponential to meet the return requirements. Now we see the actual numbers in a couple of bumps and valleys. The humpback enjoy the money manager, the valleys produce stress. The first non-marginal deviation from exponential trend since 1950, we see the final boss 1990. This results from the acquisition of the GDR and the almost 1:1 exchange of the East-mark in D-Mark. Money is the financial industry put into the bag, in the GDP, there is no such strong humps! On the contrary, this projection will pay the little man to the present day, with no prospect of an end.
followed after the turn Kohl's second brilliant financial coup, the introduction of the euro. Since 1994 was the European Monetary Institute, as of 1999 was € binding transaction currency. The already accumulated vast amounts of money came to the launching Internet boom, in which companies garage quickly billion dollar company, and many crashed just as quickly. For the first time was the total arc spans, it came to the dotcom crisis of the millennium. After only two years but relegation followed immediately the next exponential rise in order to crash again in 2008 with the Lehman bankruptcy, and since 2009 begins again the next exponential increase.
This one looks especially nice if we increase, according to the DDR-bladder simple series of one another, with the omission of the two crashes:
We then see the exponential rise, as it would require the financial industry, urgently happy to be what the stagnant GDP but can not possibly give up ever need.
led to the crash in 2009 for the first time a negative difference the previous year. We see it as accumulate in shorter intervals, more and more bubbles that lead to ever deeper crash. It is the effective distribution since 2000, fighting between wealth and GDP. Why is it a distribution fight against all things we see in the next graph:
For comparison, the official figures of assets and the GDP growth since 1991, and also their regression line on a monthly basis, are applied. On average over the last two decades increased the capacity of the month at 24.82 billion and the GDP by an average of 4.1 billion euros. That is, per 1 € of additional products were on average 6 € created assets.
Therefore, there is an increasing shortfall of at least 5 € per € growth. And each printed too much € is another claim against the real chance of winning GDP! With this massive inequality of arms, the creator and his deputies have little chance of victory in the distribution struggle.
are On the contrary, representatives of the people has long been capital representatives. Thus, the current savings decisions made at any point from the burden of wealth, the exact cause financial burden. Quite controversial to this, the employees, regardless of whether 1-euro jobs or top earners more heavily loaded and, in addition.
representatives from the capital is forgotten in this cruel war is only one thing: They sawed off with the current fiscal policies as well the branch on which you sit. Not only the capital, ultimately, only by the creators of the real economy is generated around the world, it is also guaranteed only by their work and receive. By diligently printed and provided only short-term money to blow bubbles, and with the cost of financing by the little people to ruin the average person first, then the business community and in the final collapse of the currencies. Which is precisely the balance that you want to protect the time at any price.
Thus we come finally to the observation of the gold price back. For lack of a free Western currency crises, this is only an external monetary standard, a reasonably reliable picture of the condition of the money back:
At first the unadjusted figures since 2000. The rise in gold prices in dollars, pounds and euros continues still. For several days he has experienced, however, a slight bend down, which is expected due to the fluctuating dollar / euro ratio especially in € zeiogte clear: So the price fell in a few days from about 1,050 to 950 € per ounce, while in dollars is the price still remained in 1200 dollars.
More realistic is the averaged, normalized and smoothed (5-month average) value of gold. Here we see a rise unabated and a more than fourfold the value in just ten years. Whether the slight slump the past few days is statistically significant, has yet to show in the next few weeks. Probably it is because the stressed banks and investors to avoid the failures at the time some loose from their iron reserves make need. But still, the increase was the beginning of the year not as darstisch how one might expect. This should be interpreted as a sign that the massive bailout, in particular the 750 billion for the euro, as yet to show effect.
Finally, a look at the average values of the three currencies: Here we see the clear differences between the euro and the dollar and pound. The latter fact suffer much more from real inflation trend. In particular are the hopeless Pound and the U.S. dollar, the economic data at no better than the Greeks. The only difference that the greenback, the world depends on him and supported as long as possible.
the next bubble but now lurk in the wings. Be it the Chinese real estate or the U.S., especially the non-performing loans maturing in 2011 for commercial properties, exceed the subprime crisis in the volume are wide. Be it the world's upcoming refinancing of crisis states, hedge funds, large industries and banks, the zero interest case of the central banks or the capital purchases of bonds, there are sharp mines everywhere around.
Where there is a crash first? Hard to say, it's like the Mikado: who moves first has lost.
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