Almost as exciting as a football game in the World Cup preliminary competition, designed the presidential election yesterday . The final outcome was, in a clear majority of 644 (required 623) If the government, not to be expected. But how it came about is quite a lesson German democracy. On the one hand, because after all, at least 19 dissidents to the tactical end persevered, secondly, it is also a lesson of game theory.
Well, there were four candidates, while the fourth did no one really noticed. The Gamer in this political Sudoku had previously but the following objectives:
(A) government (CDU / CSU / FDP) Target: Wulff enforce
(B) deviants (CDU / CSU / FDP) Target: Merkel and Westerwelle the leg to pee
(C) opposition (SPD / Green) Destination: Berlin "Gurkentruppe" properly shake up
(D) fundamental opposition (left) Objective: The Indomitable spoilsport
((e) To complete the picture: the extreme right (NPD) also had a goal: at least noticeable)
Now, how does one behave in such a numbers game? First is clear, if you already ausgekasperten candidates, and ultimately the government will take them down, then you have to at least at least 22 government supporters who are under the party whip, pull over up to three ballots to his side. That sounds far simpler than it is, realistically you could not assume.
only realistic hope at least the smooth passage Wulff and Merkel was to prevent in the first round. It is at this Point one could start from the unity of the groups B, C, D. A crucial role played now the choice algorithm: In the first two rounds of voting, an absolute majority, ie 623 votes needed in the last 3.Wahlgang other hand presented the relative majority of votes. To which the election is secret, thus have been obscured.
And now's exciting: Before the first vote, so none of the voters knew exactly how would the others, even the neighboring group behavior. A paradise for tactician as in Skat, Poker, or double head.
First round: It was hardly open to doubt agree because of the statement of the Left, for their own candidate, completely could be unrealistic, the action personally in the first round to get an absolute majority. But already about 200 of the group A to B would have to run. Even if the 644 government supporters were all included, so Wulff would not get a single vote, it would have for Gauck not served because it was virtually impossible because of the left for him to come to 623 votes.
Ergo, the Group B then go out all the stops, with no real risk. Consequently, many from line 44 of Merkel, Wulff received only 600 votes lousy. A clear passage between the big toe for Merkel and Westerwelle.
Second round: Now the situation was clarified, however. While groups A, C, D could expect this result on the merits, must be congealed group B but the blood in his veins. Since 44 dissidents, that was hard. It was clear: Had the Group D foul play not to vote so their own candidate, the announcement met and voted the same for Gauck, then this in the first round would have been by an absolute majority. As Wulff would not only equal but the whole government, and can therefore tackle some of the dissidents themselves, the case. Now it was evident in the break talks between the groups C and D. Although Gysi said later demonstrate that the further left stay with their candidate would. B was ruled out completely but not that D could play but not foul and support a great coup of the opposition would. The probability was low, but not impossible. Ergo many around here already 15 of the 44 dissidents (= 34%), and voted for the security of Wulff.
Ergo latter already received 615 votes, 8 votes still had enough and all the groups A, B, C, D once more reached their most pressing goals. But, the only realistic chance for Gauck was lost, as only and only if Gysi had straddled brutal here, the choice would have been possible Gauck. This would however of the left's credibility and stability robbed.
third ballot: was now in theory the choice open for Gysi took his candidate from the race. However, he announced abstention, but otherwise gave his people a free choice. Although hardly to be expected was that a majority of the Left would now choose Gauck, and also that the initial 600 votes for Wulff would be enough already, but now it would have been too risky to rely further on the left. So then fell by another 10 in group B, and the predetermined candidate of the government has now received 625 votes, even the absolute majority he now even no longer needed. Last words 57% of the dissenters were returned home to Mother, as well as might be expected was.
"fourth round": The was no longer necessary in but he is in the medial Nachkarten the groups themselves. This will continue for some days until the day on which, where then the new nation board of the nation without direct power options in office.
are anticipated because of course the left, where it is hoping to pin the "blame" for the defeat Gauck. This would indeed now proven that they are "not capable of policy" would be. Well, if you sent in the political capabilities of castling votes and persons for the purpose of a government overthrow defined, then the vote already. If by political capabilities, however, the unquestioning loyalty to their ideas and candidate, is no good. At this point, the left has finally acting no differently than the government coalition.
You also have to make yourself clear: Had the group D from the start with group C and held a joint candidate to put Gauck, then B would be the dissenters have been more cautious. Presumably it would have even served in the first round of voting for Wulff and alone group A would have been run a brilliant victory, while groups B, C, D would have been gelackmeiert. Now, however, actually all won, each of the groups A to D can tap somewhere on the back: 1:1:1:1.
Even democracy has yet to be charged to a winning point: Seldom was the one real political actually pretty useless, Presidential Election, such a exciting, hard times, it has aroused such a broad policy interest. Upright and 19 dissenters, despite party discipline, is the final statement also not a bad sign. are 1
Only a real loser it:: So here again a hit The NPD. Which was and is supported by all stakeholders, including major media completely ignored. So much so that in the quasi-official statistics of the mirror with their own candidate does not show up. Only on the edge, we read: "The NPD candidate Frank Rennicke reached in the first and second round, 3 votes. In the third round, he took up no more. " Also in the television coverage, he appeared to not really know hardly anyone might know even his name. Here, then, zero hits: 0 1:1:1:1:1:0 power so the final result. May look similar to the result of the Italians or the French in World Cup preliminary round, but still, a nice change from Ballgekicke in South Africa it was all.
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